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. 2014 Oct 25;384(9953):1499-500.
doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61839-0. Epub 2014 Oct 15.

Ebola control: effect of asymptomatic infection and acquired immunity

Steve E Bellan  1 , Juliet R C Pulliam  2 , Jonathan Dushoff  3 , Lauren Ancel Meyers  4
Affiliations

Ebola control: effect of asymptomatic infection and acquired immunity

Steve E Bellan et al. Lancet. .
No abstract available

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure
Figure. Effects of immunizing asymptomatic infections on Liberia outbreak projections and vaccination requirements
(A) Projected cumulative incidence including and excluding asymptomatic infection (50% symptomatic, dashed line100% symptomatic, solid line). If 50% of infections are asymptomatic, then models overlooking asymptomatic infection will overestimate disease incidence later in the epidemic, as individuals who were asymptomatically infected become immune and contribute to herd immunity. By January 10, 2015 models ignoring asymptomatic immunity overestimate cumulative incidence by 50% (red). (B) Population-level vaccine coverage (proportion vaccinated) needed to contain the Ebola epidemic (reduce R0 below one) in scenarios with no asymptomatic infection (solid line) and 50% asymptomatic infection (dashed line). Vaccination targets decrease throughout the epidemic as natural immunity builds up in the population, through both symptomatic and asymptomatic infection. Code for models and calculations is available at http://ebola.ici3d.org.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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