Prediction model to discard a priori liver allografts
- PMID: 25420826
- DOI: 10.1016/j.transproceed.2014.09.171
Prediction model to discard a priori liver allografts
Abstract
Background: The use of expanded criteria for donors to expand the donor pool has increased the number of discarded liver grafts in situ. The aim of our study was to elaborate a prediction model to reduce the percentage of liver grafts discarded before the procuring team is sent out.
Methods: We analyzed the donor factors of 244 evaluated candidates for liver donation. We performed a multiple logistic regression to evaluate the probability of liver grafts discarded (PD).
Results: The PD was determined by use of 3 variables: age, pathological ultrasonography, and body mass index >30. The area under curve was 82.7%, and, for a PD of 70%, the false-positive probability was 1.2%.
Conclusions: We have created a useful clinical prediction model that could avoid up to 20% of discarded liver grafts.
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