Global and regional burden of aortic dissection and aneurysms: mortality trends in 21 world regions, 1990 to 2010

Abstract

A comprehensive and systematic assessment of the global burden of aortic aneurysms (AA) has been lacking. Therefore, we estimated AA regional deaths and years of life lost (YLL) in 21 regions worldwide for 1990 and 2010. We used the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2010 study causes of death database and the cause of death ensemble modeling approach to assess levels and trends of AA deaths by age, sex, and GBD region. The global AA death rate per 100,000 population was 2.49 (95% CI: 1.78 to 3.27) in 1990 and 2.78 (95% CI: 2.04 to 3.62) in 2010. In 1990 and 2010, the highest mean death rates were in Australasia and Western Europe: 8.82 (95% CI: 6.96 to 10.79) and 7.69 (95% CI: 6.11 to 9.57) in 1990 and 8.38 (95% CI: 6.48 to 10.86) and 7.68 (95% CI: 6.13 to 9.54) in 2010. YLL rates by GBD region mirrored the mortality rate pattern. Overall, men had higher AA death rates than women: 2.86 (95% CI: 1.90 to 4.22) versus 2.12 (95% CI: 1.33 to 3.00) in 1990 and 3.40 (95% CI: 2.26 to 5.01) versus 2.15 (95% CI: 1.44 to 2.89) in 2010. The relative change in median death rate was +0.22 (95% CI: 0.10 to 0.33) in developed nations versus +0.71 (95% CI: 0.28 to 1.40) in developing nations. The smallest relative changes in median death rate were noted in North America high income, Central Europe, Western Europe, and Australasia, with estimates of +0.07 (95% CI: -0.26 to 0.37), +0.08 (95% CI: -0.02 to 0.23), +0.09 (95% CI: -0.02 to 0.21), and +0.22 (95% CI: -0.08 to 0.46), respectively. The largest increases were in Asia Pacific high income, Southeast Asia, Latin America tropical, Oceania, South Asia, and Central Sub-Saharan Africa. Women rather than men drove the increase in the Asia Pacific high-income region: the relative change in median rates was +2.92 (95% CI: 0.6 to 4.35) versus +1.05 (95% CI: 0.61 to 2.42). In contrast to high-income regions, the observed pattern in developing regions suggests increasing AA burden, which portends future health system challenges in these regions.