Spatiotemporal analysis of particulate air pollution and ischemic heart disease mortality in Beijing, China

Abstract

Background: Few studies have used spatially resolved ambient particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of <10 μm (PM10) to examine the impact of PM10 on ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in China. The aim of our study is to evaluate the short-term effects of PM10 concentrations on IHD mortality by means of spatiotemporal analysis approach.

Methods: We collected daily data on air pollution, weather conditions and IHD mortality in Beijing, China during 2008 and 2009. Ordinary kriging (OK) was used to interpolate daily PM10 concentrations at the centroid of 287 township-level areas based on 27 monitoring sites covering the whole city. A generalized additive mixed model was used to estimate quantitatively the impact of spatially resolved PM10 on the IHD mortality. The co-effects of the seasons, gender and age were studied in a stratified analysis. Generalized additive model was used to evaluate the effects of averaged PM10 concentration as well.

Results: The averaged spatially resolved PM10 concentration at 287 township-level areas was 120.3 ± 78.1 μg/m3. Ambient PM10 concentration was associated with IHD mortality in spatiotemporal analysis and the strongest effects were identified for the 2-day average. A 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10 was associated with an increase of 0.33% (95% confidence intervals: 0.13%, 0.52%) in daily IHD mortality. The effect estimates using spatially resolved PM10 were larger than that using averaged PM10. The seasonal stratification analysis showed that PM10 had the statistically stronger effects on IHD mortality in summer than that in the other seasons. Males and older people demonstrated the larger response to PM10 exposure.

Conclusions: Our results suggest that short-term exposure to particulate air pollution is associated with increased IHD mortality. Spatial variation should be considered for assessing the impacts of particulate air pollution on mortality.

Figure 1

The 27 monitoring stations for PM ₁₀ in Beijing.

Figure 2

The averaged spatially resolved PM ₁₀ concentrations at 304 towns in Beijing during 2008–2009.

Figure 3

Percentage increase of IHD mortality associated with a 10-μg/m ³ increase in PM ₁₀ concentration in Beijing, China. Note: GAM: Estimated effects in GAM using averaged PM₁₀; GAMM_Mean: Estimated effects in GAMM using averaged PM₁₀; GAMM_Estimates: Estimated effects in GAMM using spatially resolved PM₁₀.

Figure 4

Percent increase in IHD mortality associated with a 10-μg/m ³ increase in PM ₁₀ concentrations using the single- and two-pollutant models in GAMM.

Figure 5

Percent increase (95% CI) in IHD mortality associated with a 10-μg/m ³ increase in PM ₁₀ concentrations by sex using the single-pollutant model in GAMM.

Figure 6

Percent increase (95% CI) in IHD mortality associated with a 10-μg/m ³ increase in PM ₁₀ concentrations by age using the single-pollutant model in GAMM.