Predictors of recurrence after a first hepatectomy for colorectal cancer liver metastases: a retrospective analysis

Abstract

Background: Surgical resection is considered the standard therapy in the treatment of liver metastases from colorectal cancer (CRCLM); however, most patients experience tumor recurrence after curative hepatic resection. The objective was to determine potential prognostic factors for tumor recurrence after an initial hepatectomy for CRCLM.

Methods: A study population of 101 patients who had undergone a first curative hepatectomy for CRCLM was retrospectively analyzed. Selected biological tumor markers, and clinical and pathological features were then tested by Cox regression.

Results: Synchronous liver metastases occurred in 38 patients (37.6%) and 63 patients (62.3%) presented with metachronous liver metastases. In a median follow-up time of 68 months, recurrence was observed in 64 patients (63.3%). The 5-year cumulative risk of recurrence was 56.7%. The median survival after recurrence was 24.5 months (range 1 to 41 months) and 5-year cumulative overall survival was 31.8%. Of all variables tested by Cox regression, intra- and extrahepatic resectable disease, CEA levels≥50 ng/mL and bilobar liver disease remained significant as predictors of recurrence in the multivariate analysis.

Conclusions: Independent risk factors for recurrence after an initial hepatectomy for CRCLM, such as intra- and extrahepatic resectable disease, CEA levels≥50 ng/mL and bilobar liver disease, can eventually help in making decisions in this very complex scenario.

Figure 1

The 5-year risk of tumoral recurrence ( n = 101).

Figure 2

Five-year cumulative overall survival ( n = 101).