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. 2015 Jan 1;128(1-2):71-84.
doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1290-1.

Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty

Young-Min Kim  1 , Ying Zhou  1 , Yang Gao  2 , Joshua S Fu  3 , Brent A Johnson  4 , Cheng Huang  5 , Yang Liu  1
Affiliations

Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty

Young-Min Kim et al. Clim Change. .

Abstract

The spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O3) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O3 level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057-2059) and base years (2001-2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4.5) and a fossil fuel intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). We then estimated the excess mortality attributable to changes in O3. Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of the excess mortality estimates to the input variables and the uncertainty in the excess mortality estimation using Monte Carlo simulations. O3-related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1,312 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95% confidence interval (CI): 427 to 2,198) and -2,118 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (95% CI: -3,021 to -1,216), when allowing for climate change and emissions reduction. The uncertainty of O3-related excess mortality estimates was mainly caused by RCP emissions pathways. Excess mortality estimates attributable to the combined effect of climate and emission changes on O3 as well as the associated uncertainties vary substantially in space and so do the most influential input variables. Spatially resolved data is crucial to develop effective community level mitigation and adaptation policy.

Keywords: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs); climate change; mortality; ozone; spatial variation; uncertainty.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Nine climate regions in the United States
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Spatial distribution of O3 changes between 2001–2004 and 2057–2059 (a) and (b) are MDA8 O3 changes for year round under RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Spatial distribution of excess mortality in 2057–2059 attributable to O3 changes (a) and (b) indicate annual of MDA8 O3–related EMs based on mortality risk from Bell et al. (2004) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively (c) is EMs per 100,000 persons due to MDA8 O3 change under RCP8.5 (d) and (e) are the standard errors (SEs) of county-level EM estimates The means and SEs of EMs are derived from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of mortality rate, concentration change, and CRF coefficient Each county-level EM is obtained from the average of four EMs from four ICLUS population scenarios
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
County-level analysis of variance (ANOVA) results (a), (b), and (c) indicate the percent proportion of the sum of squares of emission pathway (RCP), concentration-response function (CRF), and population scenario (POP) to cover the variance of mean EM attributable to O3 change, respectively
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Probability distribution of all possible excess mortalities due to O3 changes under RCP4.5 and 8.5 (a) Probability distribution; (b) Cumulative distribution of the excess mortality
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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