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. 2014 Dec;10(16):2561-8.
doi: 10.2217/fon.14.192.

USA endometrial cancer projections to 2030: should we be concerned?

M Aamir Sheikh  1 , Andrew D Althouse, Kyle E Freese, Sean Soisson, Robert P Edwards, Sharon Welburn, Paniti Sukumvanich, John Comerci, Joseph Kelley, Ronald E LaPorte, Faina Linkov
Affiliations

USA endometrial cancer projections to 2030: should we be concerned?

M Aamir Sheikh et al. Future Oncol. 2014 Dec.

Abstract

Aim: As the incidence of endometrial cancer (EC) increased considerably since 2007, this study aimed to project the burden of EC to the year 2030.

Methods: Multivariate linear regression was used to project EC incidence by modeling trends in EC incidence from 1990 to 2013, while accounting for temporal changes in obesity, hysterectomy and smoking.

Results: The best-fitting model predicting EC rates included a time effect plus effects for hysterectomy (12-year lag), severe obesity (3-year lag) and smoking (9-year lag). The best-fitting model projected an increase to 42.13 EC cases per 100,000 by the year 2030, a 55% increase over 2010 EC rates.

Conclusion: The projected increase of EC over next 16 years indicates the need for close monitoring of EC trends.

Keywords: endometrial cancer; future projections; incidence; obesity; prevention.

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