Decision-analytic modeling studies: An overview for clinicians using multiple myeloma as an example

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to provide a clinician-friendly overview of decision-analytic models evaluating different treatment strategies for multiple myeloma (MM).

Methods: We performed a systematic literature search to identify studies evaluating MM treatment strategies using mathematical decision-analytic models. We included studies that were published as full-text articles in English, and assessed relevant clinical endpoints, and summarized methodological characteristics (e.g., modeling approaches, simulation techniques, health outcomes, perspectives).

Results: Eleven decision-analytic modeling studies met our inclusion criteria. Five different modeling approaches were adopted: decision-tree modeling, Markov state-transition modeling, discrete event simulation, partitioned-survival analysis and area-under-the-curve modeling. Health outcomes included survival, number-needed-to-treat, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life years. Evaluated treatment strategies included novel agent-based combination therapies, stem cell transplantation and supportive measures.

Conclusion: Overall, our review provides a comprehensive summary of modeling studies assessing treatment of MM and highlights decision-analytic modeling as an important tool for health policy decision making.

Keywords: Cost–effectiveness analysis; Decision-analytic modeling; Health economic modeling; Multiple myeloma; Systematic overview.