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. 2015 Jan 29:5:8118.
doi: 10.1038/srep08118.

Impacts of reactive nitrogen on climate change in China

Yalan Shi  1 , Shenghui Cui  1 , Xiaotang Ju  2 , Zucong Cai  3 , Yong-Guan Zhu  4
Affiliations

Impacts of reactive nitrogen on climate change in China

Yalan Shi et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

China is mobilizing the largest anthropogenic reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the world due to agricultural, industrial and urban development. However, the climate effects related to Nr in China remain largely unclear. Here we comprehensively estimate that the net climate effects of Nr are -100 ± 414 and 322 ± 163 Tg CO₂e on a GTP₂₀ and a GTP₁₀₀ basis, respectively. Agriculture contributes to warming at 187 ± 108 and 186 ± 56 Tg CO₂e on a 20-y and 100-y basis, respectively, dominated by long-lived nitrous oxide (N2O) from fertilized soils. On a 20-y basis, industry contributes to cooling at -287 ± 306 Tg CO₂e, largely owing to emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) altering tropospheric ozone, methane and aerosol concentrations. However, these effects are short-lived. The effect of industry converts to warming at 136 ± 107 Tg CO₂e on a 100-y basis, mainly as a result of the reduced carbon (C) sink from the NOx-induced ozone effect on plant damage. On balance, the warming effects of gaseous Nr are partly offset by the cooling effects of N-induced carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems. The large mitigation potentials through reductions in agricultural N₂O and industrial NOx will accompany by a certain mitigation pressure from limited N-induced C sequestration in the future.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Emission inventory of gaseous Nr.
Uncertainty bars represent the min and max ranges of Nr compounds. The data are collected from a variety of inventory models, including IIASA GAINS, EDGAR v4.2, RCPs, and MACCity.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Climate change impact of Nr in China.
The warming effect is represented in red color, while the cooling effect is represented in blue color. Uncertainty bars represent the variation ranges of climate effects on a GTP20 and GTP100 basis.
Figure 3
Figure 3. N deposition into terrestrial ecosystems and net C exchange due to N deposition.
(a), Spatial distribution of N deposition rate in China. (b), N deposition into cropland ecosystem. (c), N deposition into forest ecosystem. (d), N deposition into grass land ecosystem. (e), N deposition into wetland ecosystem. (f), Net C exchange (NCE) due to N deposition. The blue color represents C uptake; the red color represents C emission. The spatial maps of N deposition rate around China were developed from the spatial interpolation technique through the application of ARCGIS 10.
Figure 4
Figure 4. Relative contribution to climate change of Nr from agriculture and industry.
The effect of agriculture is represented in yellow color, while the effect of industry is represented in green color. Uncertainty bars represent the variation ranges of climate effects on a GTP20 and GTP100 basis.
Figure 5
Figure 5. Scenario analysis on climate forcers related to Nr in China, on a GTP20 and GTP100 basis for the year of 2020 and 2050.
E1: N2O → N2O effect; E2: NOx → ozone-CH4 effect; E3: NOx, NH3 → Aerosol effect; E4: N deposition → CO2, CH4 effect; E5: N fertilization → CO2, CH4 effect; E6: NOx → ozone → CO2 effect. The differences between SRES II, SRES III and BAU scenario are defined as mitigation potentials, with green column; while the difference between SRES II, SRES III and RCP scenario are defined as mitigation pressures, with orange column. The detailed mitigation potentials and pressures of SRES II and SRES III are represented on the left and right of the points, respectively.
Figure 6
Figure 6. Climate change impact of Nr in China between 2005–2050.
(a), climate effect on a GTP20 basis. (b), climate effect on a GTP100 basis. The values in 2010, 2030 and 2040 are estimated on the basis of the logistic growth model.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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