Balancing urban growth and ecological conservation: A challenge for planning and governance in China

Abstract

China has high biodiversity and is rapidly urbanizing. However, there is limited understanding of how urban expansion in the country is likely to affect its habitats and biodiversity. In this study, we examine urban expansion patterns and their likely impacts on biodiversity in China by 2030. Our analysis shows that most provinces are expected to experience urban expansion either near their protected areas or in biodiversity hotspots. In a few provinces such as Guangdong in the south, urban expansion is likely to impinge on both protected areas and biodiversity hotspots. We show that policies that could facilitate the integration of natural resource protection into urban planning exist on paper, but the prevailing incentives and institutional arrangements between the central and local governments prevent this kind of integration. Removing these obstacles will be necessary in order to safeguard the country's rich biodiversity in light of the scale of urbanization underway.

Fig. 1

The comparison of urban expansion forecasts from 2000 to 2030 to changes in VANUI from 2001 to 2010 for two rapidly urbanizing regions in China

Fig. 2

Urban land circa 2000 and forecasted mean urban land in 2030 by province. Error bars show one standard deviation

Fig. 3

Forecasted mean percent increase in urban land between 2000 and 2030 by province

Fig. 4

a Urban extent circa 2000, PAs, and biodiversity hotspots in China, b Forecasted mean percent increase in urban land near PAs between 2000 and 2030 by province

Fig. 5

Urban land in PAs and within 50 km of PAs circa 2000 and as forecasted in 2030 by province. Error bars show one standard deviation