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. 2015 Feb 3:15:36.
doi: 10.1186/s12879-015-0763-9.

Human brucellosis occurrences in inner mongolia, China: a spatio-temporal distribution and ecological niche modeling approach

Peng Jia  1 , Andrew Joyner  2
Affiliations

Human brucellosis occurrences in inner mongolia, China: a spatio-temporal distribution and ecological niche modeling approach

Peng Jia et al. BMC Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Background: Brucellosis is a common zoonotic disease and remains a major burden in both human and domesticated animal populations worldwide. Few geographic studies of human Brucellosis have been conducted, especially in China. Inner Mongolia of China is considered an appropriate area for the study of human Brucellosis due to its provision of a suitable environment for animals most responsible for human Brucellosis outbreaks.

Methods: The aggregated numbers of human Brucellosis cases from 1951 to 2005 at the municipality level, and the yearly numbers and incidence rates of human Brucellosis cases from 2006 to 2010 at the county level were collected. Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing (RS) and ecological niche modeling (ENM) were integrated to study the distribution of human Brucellosis cases over 1951-2010.

Results: Results indicate that areas of central and eastern Inner Mongolia provide a long-term suitable environment where human Brucellosis outbreaks have occurred and can be expected to persist. Other areas of northeast China and central Mongolia also contain similar environments.

Conclusions: This study is the first to combine advanced spatial statistical analysis with environmental modeling techniques when examining human Brucellosis outbreaks and will help to inform decision-making in the field of public health.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Inner Mongolia, China.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Decadal human Brucellosis cases (persons) at the municipal level during 1951–2010.
Figure 3
Figure 3
County level spatial distribution of aggregated human cases (persons) and incidence rates (persons per 100,000 population) over 2006–2010.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Raw and spatially smoothed incidence rates of human Brucellosis cases.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Spatial clustering of human Brucellosis cases and incidence rates.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Jackknife analysis results. (a) The Jackknife of regularized training gain test which predictor (variable) contributes most to the model (b) The Jackknife of test gain uses the test samples (not used in the model) to measure how each predictor (variable) contributes to the average likelihood of presence locality (c) The Jackknife of AUC assesses differences in significance to show that the model performs better than random based on each variable.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Probability of presence of human Brucellosis in nine Chinese provinces and the country of Mongolia.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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