Trends in the lifetime risk of developing cancer in Great Britain: comparison of risk for those born from 1930 to 1960

Abstract

Background: Typically, lifetime risk is calculated by the period method using current risks at different ages. Here, we estimate the probability of being diagnosed with cancer for individuals born in a given year, by estimating future risks as the cohort ages.

Methods: We estimated the lifetime risk of cancer in Britain separately for men and women born in each year from 1930 to 1960. We projected rates of all cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and of all cancer deaths forwards using a flexible age-period-cohort model and backwards using age-specific extrapolation. The sensitivity of the estimated lifetime risk to the method of projection was explored.

Results: The lifetime risk of cancer increased from 38.5% for men born in 1930 to 53.5% for men born in 1960. For women it increased from 36.7 to 47.5%. Results are robust to different models for projections of cancer rates.

Conclusions: The lifetime risk of cancer for people born since 1960 is >50%. Over half of people who are currently adults under the age of 65 years will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lifetime.

Figure 1

Estimated cohort lifetime risk for 1930–1960 year of birth with results from the period for 2010 lifetime risk by sex for UK population.

Figure 2

Estimated cumulative risk for 1960 cohort.

Figure 3

Estimated cohort lifetime risk for 1930–1960 year of birth with results from the sensitivity analysis and period for 2010 lifetime risk by sex for UK population. Note that for males (and females) the line goes through the exponential models estimates.