Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2015 Jul;47(3):362-9.
doi: 10.4143/crt.2014.110. Epub 2014 Dec 2.

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Korea

Chang-Mo Oh  1 , Kyu-Won Jung  1 , Young-Joo Won  1 , Aesun Shin  1   2 , Hyun-Joo Kong  1 , Jin-Soo Lee  1
Affiliations

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Korea

Chang-Mo Oh et al. Cancer Res Treat. 2015 Jul.

Abstract

Purpose: South Korea has the highest incidence rate of thyroid cancer in the world, and the incidence rate continues to increase. The aim of this study was to determine the age-period-cohort effects on the incidence of thyroid cancer in Korea.

Materials and methods: Using the Korean National Cancer registry database, age-standardized incidence rates and annual percent changes (APCs) in thyroid cancer according to sex and histologic type were analyzed between 1997 and 2011. Age-period-cohort models were applied using an intrinsic estimator method according to sex.

Results: In both men and women, the incidence of thyroid cancer showed a sharp increase from 1997 through 2011. Among the histologic types, papillary carcinoma showed the greatest increase, with APCs of 25.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 22.7% to 27.5%) in men and 23.7% (95% CI, 21.9% to 25.5%) in women, whereas anaplastic carcinoma did not show a significant increase in either sex. An increase in overall thyroid cancer incidence over time was observed in all birth cohorts. An age-period-cohort model indicated a steeply increasing period effect, which increased prominently from 1997 to 2011 in both men and women. The age effect showed an inverted U-shaped trend. The cohort effect tended to show a slight increase or remain constant from 1952 to 1977, followed by a decrease.

Conclusion: The period effect can explain the sharp increase in thyroid cancer incidence, strongly suggesting the role of thyroid screening.

Keywords: Incidence; Korea; Neoplasms; Thyroid; Time trends.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest relevant to this article was not reported.

Figures

Appendix 1.
Appendix 1.
Association between the numbers of ultrasonographs per 100,000 individuals and thyroid cancer incidence per 100,000 individuals in Korea, 2000-2011.
Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Age standardized incidence and mortality rates of thyroid cancer in men (A) and women (B).
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Thyroid cancer incidence rates in Korean men (A) and women (B) by age at cancer incidence, period, and birth cohort.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Age-period-cohort analysis of thyroid cancer in Korean men.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.
Age-period-cohort analysis of thyroid cancer in Korean women.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Ferlay J, Soerjomataram I, Ervik M, Dikshit R, Eser S, Mathers C, et al. GLOBOCAN 2012 v1.0: cancer incidence and mortality worldwide. IARC Cancer Base No. 10 [Internet] Lyon:: International Agency for Research on Cancer; 2013. [cited 2013 Jan 11]. Available from: http://globocan.iarc.fr/
    1. Jung KW, Won YJ, Kong HJ, Oh CM, Seo HG, Lee JS. Cancer statistics in Korea: incidence, mortality, survival and prevalence in 2010. Cancer Res Treat. 2013;45:1–14. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Kilfoy BA, Zheng T, Holford TR, Han X, Ward MH, Sjodin A, et al. International patterns and trends in thyroid cancer incidence, 1973-2002. Cancer Causes Control. 2009;20:525–31. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Chen AY, Jemal A, Ward EM. Increasing incidence of differentiated thyroid cancer in the United States, 1988-2005. Cancer. 2009;115:3801–7. - PubMed
    1. Hogan AR, Zhuge Y, Perez EA, Koniaris LG, Lew JI, Sola JE. Pediatric thyroid carcinoma: incidence and outcomes in 1753 patients. J Surg Res. 2009;156:167–72. - PubMed

LinkOut - more resources