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. 2015 Apr;105 Suppl 2(Suppl 2):S223-9.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2014.302303. Epub 2015 Feb 17.

Simulating the dynamic effect of land use and transport policies on the health of populations

Roderick J McClure  1 , Claudia Adriazola-Steil, Christine Mulvihill, Michael Fitzharris, Paul Salmon, C Paul Bonnington, Mark Stevenson
Affiliations

Simulating the dynamic effect of land use and transport policies on the health of populations

Roderick J McClure et al. Am J Public Health. 2015 Apr.

Abstract

Objectives: We identified the features of a land use-transportation system that optimizes the health and well-being of the population.

Methods: We developed a quantitative system dynamics model to represent relationships among land use, transport, economic development, and population health. Simulation experiments were conducted over a 10-year simulation period to compare the effect of different baseline conditions and land use-transport policies on the number of motor vehicle crash deaths and disability-adjusted life years lost.

Results: Optimal reduction in the public health burden attributable to land transport was demonstrated when transport safety risk reduction policies were combined with land use and transport polices that minimized reliance on individual motorized transport and maximized use of active transport modes. The model's results were particularly sensitive to the level of development that characterized each city at the start of the simulation period.

Conclusions: Local, national, and international decision-makers are encouraged to address transport, land use, and health as an integrated whole to achieve the desired societal benefits of traffic safety, population health, and social equity.

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Figures

FIGURE 1—
FIGURE 1—
Traffic injury deaths by population and policy option for (a) London, England; (b) Copenhagen, Denmark; (c) Beijing, China; (d) Delhi, India; (e) New York, NY; and (f) Melbourne, Australia.
FIGURE 2—
FIGURE 2—
Disability-adjusted life years lost from all cause by population and policy option for (a) London, England; (b) Copenhagen, Denmark; (c) Beijing, China; (d) Delhi, India; (e) New York, NY; and (f) Melbourne, Australia.
FIGURE 3—
FIGURE 3—
Policy prevented proportion of potential deaths and disability-adjusted life years lost by policy option for (a) London, England; (b) Copenhagen, Denmark; (c) Beijing, China; (d) Delhi, India; (e) New York, NY; and (f) Melbourne, Australia.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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MeSH terms