The determinants of spread of Ebola virus disease - an evidence from the past outbreak experiences

Abstract

The paper summarizes available evidence regarding the determinants of spread of Ebola virus disease, including health care and community related risk factors. It was observed that the level of uncertainty for the estimations is relatively high which may hinder to make some predictions for the future evolution of EVD outbreak. The natural history of EVD has shown that the disease may pose a problem to developed countries and may present a thread to individuals. Although observed modes of transmission mainly include direct contact and contaminated staff, high case fatality ratio and frequent contacts among individuals in developed countries are among determinants which may lead to the development of the EVD outbreak.

Keywords: Ebola virus infection; chain of infection; determinants; replication number; risk factor; source; spread; transmission.