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. 2015:2015:983409.
doi: 10.1155/2015/983409. Epub 2015 Feb 1.

Predictors of mortality and prehospital monitoring limitations in blunt trauma patients

Matej Strnad  1 , Vesna Borovnik Lesjak  2 , Vitka Vujanović  2 , Tine Pelcl  2 , Miljenko Križmarić  3
Affiliations

Predictors of mortality and prehospital monitoring limitations in blunt trauma patients

Matej Strnad et al. Biomed Res Int. 2015.

Abstract

This study aimed at determining predictors of in-hospital mortality and prehospital monitoring limitations in severely injured intubated blunt trauma patients. We retrospectively reviewed patients' charts. Prehospital vital signs, Injury Severity Score (ISS), initial Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Revised Trauma Score (RTS), arterial blood gases, and lactate were compared in two study groups: survivors (n = 40) and nonsurvivors (n = 30). There were no significant differences in prehospital vital signs between compared groups. Nonsurvivors were older (P = 0.006), with lower initial GCS (P < 0.001) and higher ISS (P < 0.001), along with higher lactate (P < 0.001) and larger base deficit (BD; P = 0.006), whereas RTS (P = 0.001) was lower in nonsurvivors. For predicting mortality, area under the curve (AUC) was calculated: for lactate 0.82 (P < 0.001), for ISS 0.82 (P < 0.001), and for BD 0.69 (P = 0.006). Lactate level of 3.4 mmol/L or more was 82% sensitive and 75% specific for predicting in-hospital death. In a multivariate logistic regression model, ISS (P = 0.037), GCS (P = 0.033), and age (P = 0.002) were found to be independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. The AUC for regression model was 0.93 (P < 0.001). Increased levels of lactate and BD on admission indicate more severe occult hypoperfusion in nonsurvivors whereas vital signs did not differ between the groups.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
ROC curve for lactate.
Figure 2
Figure 2
ROC curve for ISS.
Figure 3
Figure 3
ROC curve for BD.
Figure 4
Figure 4
ROC curve for multivariate logistic regression model.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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