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. 2016;26(1):58-74.
doi: 10.1080/09603123.2015.1020414. Epub 2015 Mar 16.

Modeling an irritant gas plume for epidemiologic study

Dev D Jani  1 , David Reed  2 , Charles E Feigley  3 , Erik R Svendsen  1
Affiliations

Modeling an irritant gas plume for epidemiologic study

Dev D Jani et al. Int J Environ Health Res. 2016.

Abstract

Plume dispersion modeling systems are often used in assessing human exposures to chemical hazards for epidemiologic study. We modeled the 2005 Graniteville, South Carolina, 54,915 kg railcar chlorine release using both the Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres and Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) plume modeling systems. We estimated the release rate by an engineering analysis combining semi-quantitative observations and fundamental physical principles. The use of regional meteorological conditions was validated by comparing concentration estimates generated by two source-location weather data-sets. The HPAC model estimated a chlorine plume with 20 ppm outdoor concentrations up to 7 km downwind and 0.25 km upwind/downgrade. A comparative analysis of our two models showed that HPAC was the best candidate for use as a model system on which epidemiologic studies could be based after further model validation. Further validation studies are needed before individual exposure estimates can be reliable and the chlorine plume more definitively modeled.

Keywords: agriculture; atmospheric; epidemiology; risk.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Locations of 13 RAWS sites utilized in weather validation study. Map was developed using ArcGIS ArcMap Version 10.0, Esri, Redlands, CA).
Figure 2
Figure 2
ALOHA Model of Graniteville, SC chlorine release. Estimated 60-min AEGL isopleths and confidence lines are shown up to a maximum distance of 10 km downwind. AEGL-3 (red), 2 (yellow) and 1 (green) correspond to 20, 2 and 0.5 ppm, respectively.
Figure 3
Figure 3
HPAC Model of Graniteville, SC chlorine release. Estimated 30-min AEGL isopleths are shown. AEGL-3 (red), 2 (yellow) and 1 (green) correspond to 28, 2.8 and 0.5 ppm, respectively.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Concentration vs Downwind Distance for HPAC mode. Both 30-min and 60-min curves are shown for the maximum estimated concentration of chlorine at specific centerline distances downwind.
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References

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