Uric acid and the prediction models of tumor lysis syndrome in AML

Abstract

We investigated the ability of serum uric acid (SUA) to predict laboratory tumor lysis syndrome (LTLS) and compared it to common laboratory variables, cytogenetic profiles, tumor markers and prediction models in acute myeloid leukemia patients. In this retrospective study patients were risk-stratified for LTLS based on SUA cut-off values and the discrimination ability was compared to current prediction models. The incidences of LTLS were 17.8%, 21% and 62.5% in the low, intermediate and high-risk groups, respectively. SUA was an independent predictor of LTLS (adjusted OR 1.12, CI95% 1.0-1.3, p = 0.048). The discriminatory ability of SUA, per ROC curves, to predict LTLS was superior to LDH, cytogenetic profile, tumor markers and the combined model but not to WBC (AUCWBC 0.679). However, in comparisons between high-risk SUA and high-risk WBC, SUA had superior discriminatory capability than WBC (AUCSUA 0.664 vs. AUCWBC 0.520; p <0.001). SUA also demonstrated better performance than the prediction models (high-risk SUAAUC 0.695, p<0.001). In direct comparison of high-risk groups, SUA again demonstrated superior performance than the prediction models (high-risk SUAAUC 0.668, p = 0.001) in predicting LTLS, approaching that of the combined model (AUC 0.685, p<0.001). In conclusion, SUA alone is comparable and highly predictive for LTLS than other prediction models.

Fig 1. Comparison of ROC curves to predict LTLS: a) Test-pairs and b) Risk factors (cytogenetics, WBC, LDH and SUA).

Fig 2. ROC curves of a) Prediction models (CALGB, Cairo, NHS and SUA) and b) High-risk groups of the prediction models.