Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2015 Apr;47(2):142-8.
doi: 10.4143/crt.2015.066. Epub 2015 Mar 17.

Prediction of cancer incidence and mortality in Korea, 2015

Kyu-Won Jung  1 , Young-Joo Won  1 , Chang-Mo Oh  1 , Hyun-Joo Kong  1 , Hyunsoon Cho  1 , Duk Hyoung Lee  2 , Kang Hyun Lee  3
Affiliations

Prediction of cancer incidence and mortality in Korea, 2015

Kyu-Won Jung et al. Cancer Res Treat. 2015 Apr.

Abstract

Purpose: For estimation of Korea's current cancer burden, this study aimed to report on the projected cancer incidence and mortality rates for the year 2015.

Materials and methods: Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2012 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2013 were acquired from Statistics Korea. The cancer incidence in 2015 was projected by fitting a linear regression model to the observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against the observed years and then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. A similar procedure was used for cancer mortality, except a Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly.

Results: A total of 280,556 new cancer cases and 76,698 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2015. The crude incidence rate per 100,000 of all sites combined will likely reach 551.6 and the age-standardized incidence rate, 347.6. The estimated five leading primary cancer incidence sites are the stomach, colorectum, lung, prostate, and liver in men; and thyroid, breast, colorectum, stomach, and lung in women. The projected crude mortality rate of all sites combined and age-standardized rate is 150.8 and 82.4, respectively.

Conclusion: Cancer is currently one of the foremost public health concerns in Korea, and as the population ages, the nation's cancer burden will continue to increase.

Keywords: 2015; Forecasting; Incidence; Korea; Mortality; Neoplasms.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest relevant to this article was not reported.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
The 10 leading types of estimated new cancer cases and deaths by sex in 2015. (A) Estimated new cases. (B) Estimated deaths.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Projected age-specific incidences of major cancers during 2015 in Korea. (A) Male. (B) Female.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Projected age-specific mortality rates of major cancers during 2015 in Korea. (A) Male. (B) Female.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Daejeon: Statistics Korea; 2014. Statistics Korea [Internet] . [cited 2015 Jan 24]. Available from: http://kosis.kr.
    1. Jung KW, Won YJ, Kong HJ, Oh CM, Lee DH, Lee JS. Cancer statistics in Korea: incidence, mortality, survival, and prevalence in 2011. Cancer Res Treat. 2014;46:109–23. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Shin HR, Won YJ, Jung KW, Kong HJ, Yim SH, Lee JK, et al. Nationwide cancer incidence in Korea, 1999~2001; first result using the national cancer incidence database. Cancer Res Treat. 2005;37:325–31. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Fritz A, Percy C, Jack A, Shanmugaratnam K, Sobin L, Parkin DM, et al. International classification of diseases for oncology. 3rd ed. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2000.
    1. World Health Organization . International statistical classification of diseases and related health problems. 10th rev. Geneva: World Health Organization; 1994.

LinkOut - more resources