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. 2015 Mar 16:350:h1115.
doi: 10.1136/bmj.h1115.

Under-reporting and case fatality estimates for emerging epidemics

Katherine E Atkins  1 , Natasha S Wenzel  2 , Martial Ndeffo-Mbah  2 , Frederick L Altice  3 , Jeffrey P Townsend  4 , Alison P Galvani  2
Affiliations

Under-reporting and case fatality estimates for emerging epidemics

Katherine E Atkins et al. BMJ. .

Abstract

Using the example of Ebola, this article highlights the problems of using population level data to estimate case fatality rates in epidemics

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: All authors have completed the unified competing interest form at www.icmje.org/coi_disclosure.pdf (available on request from the corresponding author) and declare the work was supported by the National Institutes of Health (NIH U01 GM087719, U01 GM105627, and K24 DA017072), and the National Science Foundation (NSF RAPID 1514673). This research was partly funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Immunisation at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in partnership with Public Health England (PHE). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIH, NSF, NHS, NIHR, the Department of Health or Public Health England.

Figures

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Effect of using different methods to estimate case fatality risk of Ebola in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone: naive—number of deaths by the number of cases at time t; delayed—adjusted for delay between WHO reporting of the case and the death; individual outcome—known outcome (recovery or death) of a group of patients over entire sampling period 30 December 2013 to 14 September 2014 for the three countries (95% CI); and asymptomatic—estimated as the country specific individual outcome measure multiplied by 50% (assuming that half of cases are asymptomatic)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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