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. 2015 May;45(5):1239-47.
doi: 10.1183/09031936.00142414. Epub 2015 Apr 2.

Global and regional trends in COPD mortality, 1990-2010

Peter G J Burney  1 , Jaymini Patel  2 , Roger Newson  2 , Cosetta Minelli  2 , Mohsen Naghavi  3
Affiliations

Global and regional trends in COPD mortality, 1990-2010

Peter G J Burney et al. Eur Respir J. 2015 May.

Abstract

Between 1990 and 2010, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) moved from the fourth to third most common cause of death worldwide. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease programme we quantified regional changes in the number of COPD deaths and COPD mortality rates between 1990 and 2010. We estimated the proportion of the change that was attributable to gross national income per capita and an index of cumulative smoking exposure, and quantified the difference in mortality rates attributable to demographic changes. Despite a substantial decrease in COPD mortality rates, COPD deaths fell only slightly, from three million in 1990 to 2.8 million in 2010, because the mean age of the population increased. The number of COPD deaths in 2010 would have risen to 5.2 million if the age- and sex-specific mortality rates had remained constant. Changes in smoking led to only a small increase in age- and sex-specific mortality rates, which were strongly associated with changes in gross national income. The increased burden of COPD mortality was mainly driven by changes in age distribution, but age- and sex-specific rates fell as incomes rose. The rapid response to increasing affluence suggests that changes in COPD mortality are not entirely explained by changes in early life.

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Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1. Age-Sex adjusted COPD Mortality/100,000 : 2010
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
COPD mortality rates and 2010/1990 rate ratios, by sex and age group (a) COPD mortality rates for 1990 and 2010 (b) 2010/1990 COPD mortality rate ratios
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
COPD mortality rates and 2010/1990 rate ratios, by sex and age group (a) COPD mortality rates for 1990 and 2010 (b) 2010/1990 COPD mortality rate ratios
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
2010/1990 ratio for COPD age-sex specific mortality rate, for each of the 21 regions
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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