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. 2015 Apr 30:3:e934.
doi: 10.7717/peerj.934. eCollection 2015.

The European and Japanese outbreaks of H5N8 derive from a single source population providing evidence for the dispersal along the long distance bird migratory flyways

Andrew R Dalby  1 , Munir Iqbal  2
Affiliations

The European and Japanese outbreaks of H5N8 derive from a single source population providing evidence for the dispersal along the long distance bird migratory flyways

Andrew R Dalby et al. PeerJ. .

Abstract

The origin of recent parallel outbreaks of the high pathogenicity H5N8 avian flu virus in Europe and in Japan can be traced to a single source population, which has most likely been spread by migratory birds. By using Bayesian coalescent methods to analyze the DNA sequences of the virus to find the times for divergence and combining this sequence data with bird migration data we can show the most likely locations and migratory pathways involved in the origin of the current outbreak. This population was most likely located in the Siberian summer breeding grounds of long-range migratory birds. These breeding grounds provide a connection between different migratory flyways and explain the current outbreaks in remote locations. By combining genetic methods and epidemiological data we can rapidly identify the sources and the dispersion pathways for novel avian influenza outbreaks.

Keywords: Bayesian; Coalescence; H5N8; HPAI; High pathogenicity avian influenza; Korea; Migratory birds; Siberia.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare there are no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Bayesian coalescent gene tree for the 2014 H5N8 hemagglutinin sequences.
The blue bars on the nodes represent the 95% highest posterior density intervals of the branch ages. The European and Japanese clade is highlighted in red. 0 on the x-axis represents November 2014.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Bayesian coalescent gene tree for the 2014 H5N8 neuraminidase sequences.
The blue bars on the nodes represent the 95% highest posterior density intervals of the branch ages. The European and Japanese clade is highlighted in red. 0 on the x-axis represents November 2014.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Bird migratory flyways and the December 2014 cases of H5N8 (Boere & Stroud, 2006).
The Eastern Asian Australian flyway is in red. The East Atlantic flyway is in dark blue. An expandable version of this map is available from: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=zcvUWKLLjKsE.kvYJ1NxAer8k—Map Data ©2015 Google, INEGI
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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