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. 2015 May 8:15:31.
doi: 10.1186/s12872-015-0023-3.

The prevalence, incidence, management and risks of atrial fibrillation in an elderly Chinese population: a prospective study

Li-Hua Li  1 , Chang-Sheng Sheng  2 , Bang-Chuan Hu  3 , Qi-Fang Huang  4 , Wei-Fang Zeng  5 , Ge-Le Li  6 , Ming Liu  7 , Fang-Fei Wei  8 , Lu Zhang  9 , Yuan-Yuan Kang  10 , Jie Song  11 , Shuai Wang  12 , Yan Li  13 , Shao-Wen Liu  14 , Ji-Guang Wang  15
Affiliations

The prevalence, incidence, management and risks of atrial fibrillation in an elderly Chinese population: a prospective study

Li-Hua Li et al. BMC Cardiovasc Disord. .

Abstract

Background: There is limited information on prevalent and incident atrial fibrillation in Chinese. We aimed to investigate the prevalence, incidence, management and risks of atrial fibrillation in an elderly Chinese population.

Methods: In a population--based prospective study in elderly (≥ 60 years) Chinese, we performed cardiovascular health examinations including a 12-lead electrocardiogram at baseline in 3,922 participants and biennially during follow-up in 2,017 participants. We collected information on vital status during the whole follow-up period.

Results: The baseline prevalence of atrial fibrillation was 2.0 % (n = 34) in 1718 men and 1.6 % (n = 36) in 2204 women. During a median 3.8 years of follow-up, the incidence rate of atrial fibrillation (n = 34) was 4.9 per 1000 person-years (95 % confidence interval [CI], 3.4-6.9). In univariate analysis, both the prevalence and incidence of atrial fibrillation were higher with age advancing (P < 0.0001) and in the presence of coronary heart disease (P ≤ 0.02). Of the 104 prevalent and incident cases of atrial fibrillation, only 1 (1.0 %) received anticoagulant therapy (warfarin). These patients with atrial fibrillation, compared with those with sinus rhythm, had significantly higher risks of all-cause (n = 261, hazard ratio [HR] 1.87, 95 % CI, 1.09-3.20, P = 0.02), cardiovascular (n = 136, HR 3.78, 95 % CI 2.17-6.58, P < 0.0001) and stroke mortality (n = 44, HR 6.31, 95 % CI 2.81-14.19, P = 0.0003).

Conclusions: Atrial fibrillation was relatively frequent in elderly Chinese, poorly managed and associated with higher risks of mortality.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Prevalence of atrial fibrillation by sex and age. Solid and open symbols represent men and women, respectively
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Kaplan-Meier survival curve for incident atrial fibrillation. The analysis was stratified by age group (≥70 vs. 60–69 years). A P value by Log-rank test was given for the comparison
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Kaplan-Meier survival curves for all-cause, cardiovascular and stroke mortality. The analysis for all-cause (left panel), cardiovascular (middle panel), and stroke (right panel) mortality were stratified by the diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (presence vs. absence of atrial fibrillation). A P value by Log-rank test was given for each comparison
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