Trajectory of body mass index before the development of type 2 diabetes in Japanese men: Toranomon Hospital Health Management Center Study 15

Abstract

Aims/introduction: We aimed to investigate the long-term trajectory of general adiposity assessed by the body mass index (BMI) before the onset of type 2 diabetes in Japanese individuals.

Materials and methods: We retrospectively examined data on 1,553 Japanese men without diabetes. Mean BMI and incident cases of diabetes (diabetes indicated by fasting glucose concentrations ≥7.0 mmol/L, a self-reported history of clinician-diagnosed diabetes, or glycated hemoglobin ≥6.5% (≥48 mmol/mol) were assessed on an annual basis over a 10-year period after the baseline examination.

Results: Mean (standard deviation) BMI at the time of diagnosis was 24.4 kg/m(2) (3.1 kg/m(2)) among cases of diabetes (n = 191). An increasingly high BMI was associated with the early stage of the disease development, such as an 8- to 10-year prediagnosis period; individuals who developed diabetes experienced a prolonged and stable elevated BMI of ≥24.4 kg/m(2) over the 8 years before the diagnosis of diabetes. The mean BMI among the non-cases of diabetes did not exceed 23.2 kg/m(2) throughout the period.

Conclusions: These results suggested that Japanese men who eventually developed diabetes during the 10-year observation period were not characterized as obese, but had stable high-normal BMIs before the onset of diabetes. Previous evidence showed that values for glycemic markers rapidly increased before the development of diabetes; however, the present study showed a slight gain in BMI in the earlier stage of the natural history of diabetes followed by a prolonged period of overweight.

Keywords: Body mass index trajectory; Prediction; Type 2 diabetes.

Figure 1

Trajectory of mean body mass index (95% confidence interval) among men who developed diabetes and who did not develop diabetes during the follow-up period of 10 years. Data are crude mean values and 95% confidence intervals. Closed circles, incident cases of diabetes; open circles, Non-diabetes cases.