Predicted Trends in the Incidence of Retinoblastoma in the Asia-Pacific Region

Abstract

Purpose: The aim of this study is to predict the incidence trends of retinoblastoma in the Asia-Pacific region.

Design: Statistical prediction is based on the assumption of uniform incidence among live-born children.

Methods: The number of live births was projected from population sizes and birth rates, corrected for infant mortality, and taken from the 2012 Revision of the World Population Prospects by the United Nations. The uniform incidence of 1:16,642 was derived from an earlier birth cohort analysis. Western Asia was excluded from calculations.

Results: Six of 15 countries with over 100 retinoblastomas annually and responsible for 43% of 8099 retinoblastomas predicted for 2013 are Asia-Pacific nations. The predicted incidence of retinoblastoma in the Asia-Pacific peaked in 1988 at 4772 children and is 4167 and 3859, respectively, in 2012 and 2023. The 10 countries that account for 90% of retinoblastomas in the Asia-Pacific are India (1486 and 1435 children in 2013 and 2023, respectively), China (1103 and 911), Indonesia (277 and 265), Pakistan (260 and 261), Bangladesh (184 and 172), the Philippines (142 and 152), Iran (87 and 74), Vietnam (85 and 72), Japan (64 and 58), and Afghanistan (59 and 59). Largest relative decreases are predicted for China (-17%), Vietnam and Iran (-15%), and Sri Lanka (-13%).

Conclusions: Reported retinoblastomas during the last decade in the Asia-Pacific account for less than half of predicted numbers, which can be used as surrogates for evaluating completeness of registration and for advocacy toward reducing deaths and blindness from retinoblastoma.