Screening for Type 2 Diabetes and Dysglycemia in Saudi Arabia: Development and Validation of Risk Scores

Abstract

Objective: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Saudi Arabia is the highest worldwide after excluding small island nations. We developed and validated a noninvasive screening test based on demographic and clinical data for identifying adults with undiagnosed diabetes and dysglycemia in Saudi Arabia.

Research design and methods: Data from 1,485 nonpregnant Saudi adults ≥20 years of age without a current diagnosis of diabetes were obtained from urban and rural primary healthcare centers in 2009. Clinical and demographic data were obtained through physician-administered interviews. Oral glucose tolerance test data were used to define diabetes (fasting plasma glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L or 2-h post-load glucose ≥11.1 mmol/L) and dysglycemia (fasting plasma glucose ≥5.6 mmol/L or 2-h post-load glucose ≥7.8 mmol/L). Predictive models were developed using data from 1,435 individuals. Multivariable logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to develop and evaluate a separate risk score for both diabetes and dysglycemia. Scores were validated on a hold-out sample of 50 individuals.

Results: The risk score for undiagnosed diabetes contained age, history of gestational diabetes, smoking, family history of diabetes, and central obesity with a sensitivity of 76.6% and a specificity of 52.1%. The dysglycemia risk score contained age, gestational diabetes, hypertension, and central obesity with a sensitivity of 71.2% and a specificity of 54.0%. All performed equally well, if not better, in the hold-out sample.

Conclusions: These risk scores can identify Saudi adults with undiagnosed diabetes or dysglycemia and should be validated in prospective studies.