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. 2015 Aug;152(3):627-36.
doi: 10.1007/s10549-015-3490-4. Epub 2015 Jul 11.

Personalisation of breast cancer follow-up: a time-dependent prognostic nomogram for the estimation of annual risk of locoregional recurrence in early breast cancer patients

Annemieke Witteveen  1 , Ingrid M H Vliegen, Gabe S Sonke, Joost M Klaase, Maarten J IJzerman, Sabine Siesling
Affiliations

Personalisation of breast cancer follow-up: a time-dependent prognostic nomogram for the estimation of annual risk of locoregional recurrence in early breast cancer patients

Annemieke Witteveen et al. Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2015 Aug.

Abstract

The objective of this study was to develop and validate a time-dependent logistic regression model for prediction of locoregional recurrence (LRR) of breast cancer and a web-based nomogram for clinical decision support. Women first diagnosed with early breast cancer between 2003 and 2006 in all Dutch hospitals were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (n = 37,230). In the first 5 years following primary breast cancer treatment, 950 (2.6 %) patients developed a LRR as first event. Risk factors were determined using logistic regression and the risks were calculated per year, conditional on not being diagnosed with recurrence in the previous year. Discrimination and calibration were assessed. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation. Data on primary tumours diagnosed between 2007 and 2008 in 43 Dutch hospitals were used for external validation of the performance of the nomogram (n = 12,308). The final model included the variables grade, size, multifocality, and nodal involvement of the primary tumour, and whether patients were treated with radio-, chemo- or hormone therapy. The index cohort showed an area under the ROC curve of 0.84, 0.77, 0.70, 0.73 and 0.62, respectively, per subsequent year after primary treatment. Model predictions were well calibrated. Estimates in the validation cohort did not differ significantly from the index cohort. The results were incorporated in a web-based nomogram ( http://www.utwente.nl/mira/influence ). This validated nomogram can be used as an instrument to identify patients with a low or high risk of LRR who might benefit from a less or more intensive follow-up after breast cancer and to aid clinical decision making for personalised follow-up.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Calibration chart
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
ROC curves of the index (n = 37,230) and validation (n = 12,308) cohort for 5-year LRR risks
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Print screen from the nomogram, providing the time-dependent risk of a fictional patient
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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