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. 2015 Sep;105(9):e54-9.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2015.302773. Epub 2015 Jul 16.

Probability of an Obese Person Attaining Normal Body Weight: Cohort Study Using Electronic Health Records

Alison Fildes  1 , Judith Charlton  1 , Caroline Rudisill  1 , Peter Littlejohns  1 , A Toby Prevost  1 , Martin C Gulliford  1
Affiliations

Probability of an Obese Person Attaining Normal Body Weight: Cohort Study Using Electronic Health Records

Alison Fildes et al. Am J Public Health. 2015 Sep.

Abstract

Objectives: We examined the probability of an obese person attaining normal body weight.

Methods: We drew a sample of individuals aged 20 years and older from the United Kingdom's Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 2004 to 2014. We analyzed data for 76,704 obese men and 99,791 obese women. We excluded participants who received bariatric surgery. We estimated the probability of attaining normal weight or 5% reduction in body weight.

Results: During a maximum of 9 years' follow-up, 1283 men and 2245 women attained normal body weight. In simple obesity (body mass index = 30.0-34.9 kg/m(2)), the annual probability of attaining normal weight was 1 in 210 for men and 1 in 124 for women, increasing to 1 in 1290 for men and 1 in 677 for women with morbid obesity (body mass index = 40.0-44.9 kg/m(2)). The annual probability of achieving a 5% weight reduction was 1 in 8 for men and 1 in 7 for women with morbid obesity.

Conclusions: The probability of attaining normal weight or maintaining weight loss is low. Obesity treatment frameworks grounded in community-based weight management programs may be ineffective.

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Figures

FIGURE 1—
FIGURE 1—
Data for subsequent changes in BMI category in participants who showed an initial decrease in BMI category for (a) women and (b) men: United Kingdom, 2004–2014. Note. BMI = body mass index. Data are presented by gender and initial BMI category.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

  • A Call to Shift the Public Health Focus Away From Weight.
    Hunger JM, Tomiyama AJ. Hunger JM, et al. Am J Public Health. 2015 Nov;105(11):e3. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2015.302845. Epub 2015 Sep 17. Am J Public Health. 2015. PMID: 26378831 Free PMC article. No abstract available.
  • Fildes et al. Respond.
    Fildes A, Charlton J, Rudisill C, Littlejohns P, Prevost T, Gulliford MC. Fildes A, et al. Am J Public Health. 2015 Nov;105(11):e3-4. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2015.302853. Epub 2015 Sep 17. Am J Public Health. 2015. PMID: 26378857 Free PMC article. No abstract available.

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