CALy Prognostic Score (CEA, ALP, Lymphocyte Count) as a predictor of survival after hepatectomy for liver-only colorectal metastases

Abstract

Purpose: The discovery of prognostic factors for patients who undergo hepatectomy for colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) in the era of neoadjuvant chemotherapy is imperative. This study aimed to establish a simple, cheap and easily available prognostic score for these patients.

Methods: Preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and lymphocyte count (LC) were used for the establishment of a prognostic score (CALy PS). The cut-off levels of these variables were determined by applying receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis. The final prognostic score assigned one risk point for each variable (CEA>4 μg/L, ALP>93 U/L, and LC≥1.6x10(9)/L).

Results: One hundred and thirty-five patients were included. Two risk categories were established with 0-1 and 2-3 points, respectively. CALy 0-1 vs CALy 2-3, and CALy 2-3 were associated with decreased disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) both in univariate and multivariate analysis (DFS: HR 1.84; 95% CI 1.18-2.86; p=0.007; OS: HR 2.25; 95% CI 1.23-4.11; p=0.008). When four risk categories were established with 0,1,2,and 3 points,CALy was again associated with decreased DFS and OS both in univariate and in multivariate analysis (DFS: HR 1.37; 95% CI 1.083-1.74; p=0.009; OS:HR 1.84; 95% CI 1.31-2.59; p<0.001). Three-year DFS rates for these categories (CALy 0, CALy 1, CALy 2, and CALy 3) were 45, 38, 15 and 7%, respectively, and the 5-year OS rates were 78, 68, 32, and 24%, respectively.

Conclusion: This simple, cheap, and easily available risk score provides good prognostic accuracy for both DFS and OS for patients undergoing liver resection for liver-only colorectal metastases after neoadjuvant chemotherapy.