MELD Score Kinetics in Decompensated HIV+/HCV+ Patients: A Useful Prognostic Tool (ANRS HC EP 25 PRETHEVIC Cohort Study)

Abstract

To assess prognostic factors for survival and describe Model for End-Stage liver disease (MELD) dynamics in human immunodeficiency virus+/hepatitis C virus+ (HIV+/HCV+) patients after an initial episode of hepatic decompensation.An HIV+/HCV+ cohort of patients experiencing an initial decompensation episode within the year preceding enrollment were followed prospectively. Clinical and biological data were collected every 3 months. Predictors for survival were identified using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox models. A 2-slope-mixed linear model was used to estimate MELD score changes as a function of survival.Sixty seven patients were included in 32 centers between 2009 and 2012 (72% male; median age: 48 years [interquartile ratio (IQR):45-52], median follow-up: 22.4 months [range: 0.5-65.3]). Overall survival rates were 86%, 78%, and 59% at 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively. Under multivariate analysis, the MELD score at initial decompensation was predictive of survival, adjusted for age, type of decompensation, baseline CD4 counts, and further decompensation during follow-up as a time-dependent variable. The adjusted hazard ratio of death was 1.32 for a score 3 points higher (95% CI: [1.06-1.63], P = 0.012). MELD score kinetics within the 6 months after initial decompensation differed significantly between non-deceased and deceased patients, with a decreased (-0.49/month; P = 0.016), versus a flat (+0.06/month, P = 0.753) mean change in score.MELD is an effective tool to predict survival in HIV+/HCV+ patients with decompensated cirrhosis. A non-decreasing MELD score within 6 months following this initial decompensation episode may benefit from privileged access to liver transplantation in this poor prognosis population.

FIGURE 1

Cumulative incidence of further episodes of hepatic decompensation.

FIGURE 2

Overall survival of HIV/HCV-coinfected patients after an initial episode of decompensation. HCV = hepatitis C virus, HIV = human immunodeficiency virus.

FIGURE 3

Cumulative survival according to MELD score after an initial episode of decompensation in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients. HCV = hepatitis C virus, HIV = human immunodeficiency virus, MELD = Model for End-Stage liver disease.

FIGURE 4

Evolution of MELD score in line with survival in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients (N = 66) after an initial episode of decompensation. HCV = hepatitis C virus, HIV = human immunodeficiency virus, MELD = Model for End-Stage liver disease.