Total and Partial Prevalence of Cancer Across Kerman Province, Iran, in 2014, Using an Adapted Generalized Network Scale-Up Method

Abstract

Due to the lack of nationwide population-based cancer registration, the total cancer prevalence in Iran is unknown. Our previous work in which we used a basic network scale-up (NSU) method, failed to provide plausible estimates of total cancer prevalence in Kerman. The aim of the present study was to estimate total and partial prevalence of cancer in southeastern Iran using an adapted version of the generalized network scale-up method. A survey was conducted in 2014 using multi-stage cluster sampling. A total of 1995 face-to-face gender-matched interviews were performed based on an adapted version of the NSU questionnaire. Interviewees were asked about their family cancer history. Total and partial prevalence were estimated using a generalized NSU estimator. The Monte Carlo method was adopted for the estimation of upper/lower bounds of the uncertainty range of point estimates. One-yr, 2-3 yr, and 4-5 yr prevalence (per 100,000 people) was respectively estimated at 78 (95%CI, 66, 90), 128 (95%CI, 118, 147), and 59 (95%CI, 49, 70) for women, and 48 (95%CI, 38, 58), 78 (95%CI, 66, 91), and 42 (95%CI, 32, 52) for men. The 5-yr prevalence of all cancers was estimated at 0.18 percent for men, and 0.27 percent for women. This study showed that the generalized familial network scale-up method is capable of estimating cancer prevalence, with acceptable precision.