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Review
. 2016 Jan;20(1):7-16.
doi: 10.1007/s10461-015-1158-z.

Running Backwards: Consequences of Current HIV Incidence Rates for the Next Generation of Black MSM in the United States

Derrick D Matthews  1 , A L Herrick  2 , Robert W S Coulter  2 , M Reuel Friedman  3 , Thomas C Mills  4 , Lisa A Eaton  5 , Patrick A Wilson  6 , Ron D Stall  2 ; POWER Study Team
Affiliations
Review

Running Backwards: Consequences of Current HIV Incidence Rates for the Next Generation of Black MSM in the United States

Derrick D Matthews et al. AIDS Behav. 2016 Jan.

Abstract

Black men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States are disproportionately impacted by HIV. To better understand this public health problem, we reviewed the literature to calculate an estimate of HIV incidence among Black MSM. We used this rate to model HIV prevalence over time within a simulated cohort, which we subsequently compared to prevalence from community-based samples. We searched all databases accessible through PubMed, and Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections abstracts for HIV incidence estimates among Black MSM. Summary HIV incidence rates and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using random effects models. Using the average incidence rate, we modeled HIV prevalence within a simulated cohort of Black MSM (who were all HIV-negative at the start) from ages 18 through 40. Based on five incidence rates totaling 2898 Black MSM, the weighted mean incidence was 4.16 % per year (95 % CI 2.76-5.56). Using this annual incidence rate, our model predicted that 39.94 % of Black MSM within the simulated cohort would be HIV-positive by age 30, and 60.73 % by 40. Projections were similar to HIV prevalence found in community-based samples of Black MSM. High HIV prevalence will persist across the life-course among Black MSM, unless effective prevention and treatment efforts are increased to substantially reduce HIV transmission among this underserved and marginalized population.

Keywords: Black MSM; Epidemiology; HIV incidence; HIV prevalence; HIV/AIDS; Prevention.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Identification and selection of studies
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Estimates of HIV incidence of Black MSM over time, weighted by sample size
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Existing HIV prevalence estimates among Black MSM by age, and projection based on annualized HIV incidence rate of 4.16 %
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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    1. Millett GA, Peterson JL, Flores SA, Hart TA, Wilson PA, Rourke SB, et al. Comparisons of disparities and risks of HIV infection in black and other men who have sex with men in Canada, UK, and USA: a meta-analysis. Lancet. 2012;380(9839):341–8. - PubMed
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