Influenza-associated mortality in Thailand, 2006-2011

Abstract

Background: Influenza-associated mortality in subtropical or tropical regions, particularly in developing countries, remains poorly quantified and often underestimated. We analyzed data in Thailand, a middle-income tropical country with good vital statistics and influenza surveillance data.

Methods: We obtained weekly mortality data for all-cause and three underlying causes of death (circulatory and respiratory diseases, and pneumonia and influenza), and weekly influenza virus data, from 2006 to 2011. A negative binomial regression model was used to estimate deaths attributable to influenza in two age groups (<65 and ≥65 years) by incorporating influenza viral data as covariates in the model.

Results: From 2006 to 2011, the average annual influenza-associated mortality per 100 000 persons was 4·0 (95% CI: -18 to 26). Eighty-three percent of influenza-associated deaths occurred among persons aged > 65 years. The average annual rate of influenza-associated deaths was 0·7 (95% CI: -8·2 to 10) per 100 000 population for person aged <65 years and 42 (95% CI: -137 to 216) for person aged ≥ 65 years.

Discussion: In Thailand, estimated excess mortality associated with influenza was considerable even during non-pandemic years. These data provide support for Thailand's seasonal influenza vaccination campaign. Continued monitoring of mortality data is important to assess impact.

Keywords: Influenza; Thailand; mortality; tropical.

Figure 1

Weekly observed and predicted influenza-associated deaths from underlying P&I and respiratory and circulatory diseases (with the reapportioned ill-defined deaths).