Functional measures, inflammatory markers and endothelin-1 as predictors of 360-day survival in centenarians

Abstract

Centenarians represent a rapidly growing population. To better characterize this specific age group, we have performed a cross-sectional study to observe associations between functional measures and a range of biochemical markers, including inflammatory markers and their significance as predictors of 360-day survival. Medical history and physical and functional assessment (Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Katz Index (activities of daily living, ADL) and Barthel Index (Barthel Index) of Activities of Daily Living, and Lawton Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale (Lawton IADL)) were conducted on 86 101.9 ± 1.2-year-old (mean ± SD) subjects (70 women, 16 men). Blood tests were performed on 84 subjects of whom 43 also had extended biomarker assessment. As a reference group 30 51.8 ± 5.0-year old healthy subjects (20 women, 10 men) were recruited. The centenarians received follow-up phone calls. Fifty-two centenarians (60 %) survived ≥360 days. Longer survival was associated with higher MMSE (hazard ratio, HR = 0.934, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.896-0.975, P = .002), ADL (HR = 0.840, 95 % CI 0.716-0.985, P = .032), Barthel Index (HR = 0.988, 95 % CI 0.977-0.999, P = .026), and albumin level (HR .926, 95 % CI 0.870-0.986, P .016) and with lower white blood cell (WBC) (HR = 1.161, 95 % CI 1.059-1.273, P = .001), C-reactive protein (CRP) (HR = 1.032, 95 % CI 1.014-1.050, P < .001), IL-6 (HR = 1.182, 95 % CI 1.047-1.335, P = .007), and endothelin-1 (ET-1) level (HR = 3.711, 95 % CI 1.233-11.169, P = .020). Centenarians had higher 360-day survival probability with MMSE ≥13 (P < .001), ADL ≥1 (P < .001), Barthel Index ≥15 (P < .001), Lawton IADL ≥10 points (P = .009), WBC <8.3 G/L (P = .039), CRP <10 mg/L (P < .001), IL-6 <6 pg/mL (P .002), and ET-1 <1.1 pg/mL (P .007). Our results indicate that functional measures, inflammatory markers, and endothelin-1 are predictors of 360-day survival in centenarians.

Fig. 1

Kaplan–Meier survival probability of centenarians classified according to a Mini-Mental State Examination scores ≥13 versus lower values, b Katz Index of Independence in Activities of Daily Living (ADL) ≥1 versus lower values, c Barthel Index of Activities of Daily Living (Barthel Index) ≥15 versus lower values, and d Lawton Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale (IADL) ≥10 versus lower values

Fig. 2

Kaplan–Meier survival probability of centenarians classified according to a white blood cells <8.3 G/L versus higher values, b C-reactive protein concentration <10 mg/L versus higher values, c interleukin-6 concentration <6 pg/mL versus higher values, and d endothelin-1 concentration <1.1 pg/mL versus higher values