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. 2015 Aug 28;349(6251):aac4716.
doi: 10.1126/science.aac4716.

PSYCHOLOGY. Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science

Open Science Collaboration
Collaborators

PSYCHOLOGY. Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science

Open Science Collaboration. Science. .

Abstract

Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.

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Comment in

  • REPRODUCIBILITY. Many psychology papers fail replication test.
    Bohannon J. Bohannon J. Science. 2015 Aug 28;349(6251):910-1. doi: 10.1126/science.349.6251.910. Science. 2015. PMID: 26315412 No abstract available.
  • Replication--The ugly duckling of science?
    Fabry G, Fischer MR. Fabry G, et al. GMS Z Med Ausbild. 2015 Nov 16;32(5):Doc57. doi: 10.3205/zma000999. eCollection 2015. GMS Z Med Ausbild. 2015. PMID: 26604999 Free PMC article. No abstract available.
  • Comment on "Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science".
    Gilbert DT, King G, Pettigrew S, Wilson TD. Gilbert DT, et al. Science. 2016 Mar 4;351(6277):1037. doi: 10.1126/science.aad7243. Science. 2016. PMID: 26941311
  • Response to Comment on "Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science".
    Anderson CJ, Bahník Š, Barnett-Cowan M, Bosco FA, Chandler J, Chartier CR, Cheung F, Christopherson CD, Cordes A, Cremata EJ, Della Penna N, Estel V, Fedor A, Fitneva SA, Frank MC, Grange JA, Hartshorne JK, Hasselman F, Henninger F, van der Hulst M, Jonas KJ, Lai CK, Levitan CA, Miller JK, Moore KS, Meixner JM, Munafò MR, Neijenhuijs KI, Nilsonne G, Nosek BA, Plessow F, Prenoveau JM, Ricker AA, Schmidt K, Spies JR, Stieger S, Strohminger N, Sullivan GB, van Aert RC, van Assen MA, Vanpaemel W, Vianello M, Voracek M, Zuni K. Anderson CJ, et al. Science. 2016 Mar 4;351(6277):1037. doi: 10.1126/science.aad9163. Science. 2016. PMID: 26941312
  • Failure to replicate?
    Maxcey AM. Maxcey AM. Atten Percept Psychophys. 2016 Apr;78(3):721-2. doi: 10.3758/s13414-016-1095-6. Atten Percept Psychophys. 2016. PMID: 26988566 No abstract available.
  • A journal club to fix science.
    Orben A. Orben A. Nature. 2019 Sep;573(7775):465. doi: 10.1038/d41586-019-02842-8. Nature. 2019. PMID: 31551562 No abstract available.
  • Better methods can't make up for mediocre theory.
    Smaldino P. Smaldino P. Nature. 2019 Nov;575(7781):9. doi: 10.1038/d41586-019-03350-5. Nature. 2019. PMID: 31695216 No abstract available.

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