A Conceptual Framework for Planning Systemic Human Adaptation to Global Warming

Abstract

Human activity is having multiple, inter-related effects on ecosystems. Greenhouse gas emissions persisting along current trajectories threaten to significantly alter human society. At 0.85 °C of anthropogenic warming, deleterious human impacts are acutely evident. Additional warming of 0.5 °C-1.0 °C from already emitted CO₂ will further intensify extreme heat and damaging storm events. Failing to sufficiently address this trend will have a heavy human toll directly and indirectly on health. Along with mitigation efforts, societal adaptation to a warmer world is imperative. Adaptation efforts need to be significantly upscaled to prepare society to lessen the public health effects of rising temperatures. Modifying societal behaviour is inherently complex and presents a major policy challenge. We propose a social systems framework for conceptualizing adaptation that maps out three domains within the adaptation policy landscape: acclimatisation, behavioural adaptation and technological adaptation, which operate at societal and personal levels. We propose that overlaying this framework on a systems approach to societal change planning methods will enhance governments' capacity and efficacy in strategic planning for adaptation. This conceptual framework provides a policy oriented planning assessment tool that will help planners match interventions to the behaviours being targeted for change. We provide illustrative examples to demonstrate the framework's application as a planning tool.

Keywords: adaptation; behaviour change; climate change; health; heat exposure; planning; policy.

Figure 1

Extended adaptation process model. This extended model includes a phase for planning between analysis and implementation.

Figure 2

Climate change adaptation conceptual framework. This Climate Change Adaptation Conceptual Framework comprises three domains, (acclimatisation, adaptation behaviours and technology) which operate at societal or personal levels. Subsystem elements (see Figure 3) within each of the five cells, interact with elements in other cells, across the three domains and two levels, under the influence of external factors, such as a planned policy intervention, to produce outcomes.

Figure 3

Climate change adaptation conceptual framework expanded model, provides an example of application of this framework, showing subsystem elements within each level and domain, using the example of A/C. Arrows depict influence flows that lead to use of A/C. Numbers represent the feedback loops discussed below.

Figure 4

Social norms-house design-air conditioning use feedback loops. Further illustration of the use of the CCAC framework, here populated only by relevant elements of a single feedback loop relating to house design and A/C, and introducing examples of strategies that could be applied (external influences).

Figure 5

Heat response across scales. The figure models elements that contribute to planning to prevent adverse heat effects on elderly people. Different levels of government would act at the level where their influence would be most appropriate.