The independent impact of newborn hepatitis B vaccination on reducing HBV prevalence in China, 1992-2006: A mathematical model analysis

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the independent impact of newborn hepatitis B vaccination on reducing HBV prevalence in China, from its introduction in 1992 to 2006.

Methods: An age- and time-dependent discrete dynamic model was developed to simulate HBV transmission in China under the assumptions of no any change in interventions and only with newborn vaccination introduction, respectively. The initial conditions of the model were determined according to the national serosurvey in 1992. The simulated results were compared with the observed results of the national serosurvey in 2006, and the contribution rate of newborn vaccination on reducing HBV prevalence was calculated overall and by birth cohort.

Results: The total HBV prevalence would remain stable through the 14-year period if no any change in interventions, but decrease year by year if only with newborn vaccination introduction. Newborn vaccination could account for more than 50% of the reduction of the total HBV prevalence, although the full 3-dose and timely birth dose vaccination coverage rates were low in the early years. The results by birth cohort showed that the higher the two coverage rates, the higher contribution rate on reducing HBV prevalence. For the 2005 birth cohort which had high levels in the two coverage rates, the contribution rate could reach more than 95%.

Conclusion: Newborn hepatitis B vaccination from 1992 to 2006 in China had played the most important role in reducing HBV prevalence. Newborn vaccination with high full 3-dose and timely birth dose coverage rates is the decisive factor in controlling hepatitis B in China.

Keywords: Age structure; Contribution rate; Discrete dynamic model; HBV transmission.