Incidence of type 2 diabetes and associated factors in the adult population of the Community of Madrid. PREDIMERC cohort

Abstract

Objectives: Determine the incidence and risk factors of type2 diabetes in the adult population of Madrid (Spain) and compare the predictive models of type2 diabetes based on the prediabetes criteria of the American Diabetes Association (ADA) and the World Health Organisation (WHO).

Material and methods: A prospective study was conducted on a population cohort composed of 2048 individuals between 30 and 74years of age with no diabetes. At the start of the study, an epidemiological survey was performed, and baseline glycaemia, HbA1c, body mass index and waist circumference were measured. A follow-up of 6.4years was conducted. New cases of type2 diabetes were identified using the electronic primary care medical history.

Results: The incidence of type2 diabetes was 3.5 cases/1000 person-years. In the multivariate analysis, the variables that were associated with the onset of type2 diabetes were age, family history of diabetes, baseline glycaemia (100-125mg/dL), HbA1c (5.7-6.4%) and waist circumference (≥94cm for men and ≥80cm for women). Of these, the most significantly associated variables were baseline glycaemia and HbA1c. The ADA and WHO criteria for defining prediabetes had the same predictive capacity.

Conclusion: The incidence of type2 diabetes measured in Madrid was lower than that found in other population studies, with the glucometabolic state the main factor associated with progression to type2 diabetes. There were no differences between the prediabetes defined by the ADA and the WHO for predicting the onset of the disease.

Keywords: Baseline glycaemia; Cohort population; Cohorte poblacional; Diabetes tipo 2; Factores de riesgo; Glucemia basal; HbA1c; Incidence; Incidencia; Prediabetes; Risk factors; Type 2 diabetes.