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. 2015 Sep 30;10(9):e0138765.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0138765. eCollection 2015.

Modeling and Analyzing the Transmission Dynamics of HBV Epidemic in Xinjiang, China

Tailei Zhang  1 , Kai Wang  2 , Xueliang Zhang  2
Affiliations

Modeling and Analyzing the Transmission Dynamics of HBV Epidemic in Xinjiang, China

Tailei Zhang et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Hepatitis B is an infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV) which affects livers. In this paper, we formulate a hepatitis B model to study the transmission dynamics of hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China. The epidemic model involves an exponential birth rate and vertical transmission. For a better understanding of HBV transmission dynamics, we analyze the dynamic behavior of the model. The modified reproductive number σ is obtained. When σ < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, when σ > 1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the disease is uniformly persistent. In the simulation, parameters are chosen to fit public data in Xinjiang. The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017. Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV. Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Schematic diagram of HBV transmission, structured.
S(t), A(t), C(t) and R(t) represent susceptible, acute infection, chronic HBV carrier and recovered individuals, respectively.
Fig 2
Fig 2. Monthly new reported HBV case in Xinjinag from 2004 to 2012.
The Data was obtained from the website of public health science data center.
Fig 3
Fig 3. The number of population in Xinjiang from 2003 to 2012.
The solid line is the fitted curve of total population number in Xinjiang.
Fig 4
Fig 4. The comparison between the cumulative number of acute HBV case from 2004 to 2012 and the simulation of our model.
The discrete points represent the data reported by public health science data center while the solid curve is simulated by using our model.
Fig 5
Fig 5. The tendency of the cumulative number of acute HBV cases from 2004 to 2017.
Shaded areas represent 95% confidence interval around model predictions.
Fig 6
Fig 6. Partial rank correlation coefficients(PRCC) results for the dependence of σ on each parameter.
* denotes the value of PRCC is not zero significantly, where the significance level is 0.05.
Fig 7
Fig 7. The influence of the parameter ω on the ratio of hepatitis B carrier (CN).
CN in terms of different values of ω.
Fig 8
Fig 8. The influence of the parameter β 2 on the ratio of hepatitis B carrier (CN).
CN in terms of different values of β 2.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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