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. 2015 Oct 23;10(10):e0141111.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0141111. eCollection 2015.

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios

Xuezhen Ge  1 , Shanyong He  1 , Tao Wang  2 , Wei Yan  3 , Shixiang Zong  1
Affiliations

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios

Xuezhen Ge et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. World known distribution of Rhynchophorus ferrugineus.
Fig 2
Fig 2. Flowchart indicating the process of the study.
Fig 3
Fig 3. Predicting results for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus created by CLIMEX.
Fig 4
Fig 4. Global predicted potential distribution of Rhynchophorus ferrugineus under current climate.
Fig 5
Fig 5. Potential distribution for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus under the current climate (1981–2010).
Fig 6
Fig 6. Potential distribution for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus under B2 scenario (2020s).
Fig 7
Fig 7. Comparison of the highly favourable habitats under the current climate and B2 scenario.
Fig 8
Fig 8. Comparison of the favourable habitats under the current climate and B2 scenario.
Fig 9
Fig 9. Comparison of the marginally favourable habitats under the current climate and B2 scenario.
Fig 10
Fig 10. Potential distribution for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus under A1FI scenario (2020s).
Fig 11
Fig 11. Potential distribution for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus under A2 scenario (2020s).
Fig 12
Fig 12. Potential distribution for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus under B1 scenario (2020s).
Fig 13
Fig 13. Difference values of the EI values under B2 scenario and current climate.
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