Modeling the spread and control of dengue with limited public health resources

Abstract

A deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of dengue fever is formulated to study, with a nonlinear recovery rate, the impact of available resources of the health system on the spread and control of the disease. Model results indicate the existence of multiple endemic equilibria, as well as coexistence of an endemic equilibrium with a periodic solution. Additionally, our model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. The results of this study could be helpful for public health authorities in their planning of a proper resource allocation for the control of dengue transmission.

Keywords: Backward bifurcation; Dengue fever; Dynamics; Hopf bifurcation; Hospital bed; Nonlinear recovery rate.