Outcomes in a Cohort of Patients Started on Antiretroviral Treatment and Followed up for a Decade in an Urban Clinic in Uganda

Abstract

Background: Short-medium term studies from sub-Saharan Africa show that, despite high early mortality, substantial loss to program, and high rates toxicity, patients on antiretroviral treatment have achieved outcomes comparable to those in developed settings. However, these studies were unable to account for long term outcomes of patients as they stayed longer on treatment.

Objectives: We aim to describe ten years outcomes of one of the first cohort of HIV positive patients started on antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods: We report 10-years outcomes including mortality, retention, CD4-count response, virological outcomes, ART regimens change from a prospective cohort of 559 patients initiating ART and followed up for 10 years Uganda.

Results: Of 559 patients, 69.1% were female, median age (IQR) was 38 (33-44) years, median CD4-count (IQR) 98 (21-163) cell/μL; 74% were started on stavudine, lamivudine and nevirapine, 26% on zidovudine, lamivudine and efavirenz. After 10 years 361 (65%) patients were still in the study; 127 (22.7%) had died; 30 (5%) were lost to follow-up; 27 (5%) transferred; 18 (3%) withdrew consent. The probability of death was high in the first year (0.15, 95%, CI 0.12-0.18). The median CD4 count increased from 98 to 589 cell/μL (IQR: 450-739 cell/μL) with a median increase of 357 cells/μL (IQR: 128-600 cells/μL); 7.4% never attained initial viral suppression and of those who did 31.7% experienced viral failure. Three hundred and two patients had at least one drug substitution while on first line after a median of 40 months; 66 (11.9%) of the patients were switched to a second line PI-based regimen due to confirmed treatment failure.

Conclusions: Despite the high rate of early mortality due to advanced disease at presentation the outcomes from this cohort are encouraging, particularly the remarkable and incremental immune-recovery and a satisfactory rate of virologic suppression.

Fig 1. Retention in the IDI Research Cohort.

Fig 2. Trends in median CD4 count and proportion of patients with CD4 count > 400 cells/μL over 10 years of follow up on ART.

Fig 3. Proportions of antiretroviral treatment regimens received by the patients during 10 years of follow up.

Fig 4. Cumulative probability of drug substitution by gender over 10 years of follow up.