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. 2015 Dec 8;12(12):15567-83.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph121215006.

Changes in the Effect of Heat on Mortality in the Last 20 Years in Nine European Cities. Results from the PHASE Project

Francesca K de' Donato  1 , Michela Leone  2 , Matteo Scortichini  3 , Manuela De Sario  4 , Klea Katsouyanni  5 , Timo Lanki  6 , Xavier Basagaña  7   8   9 , Ferran Ballester  10   11 , Christofer Åström  12 , Anna Paldy  13 , Mathilde Pascal  14 , Antonio Gasparrini  15   16 , Bettina Menne  17 , Paola Michelozzi  18
Affiliations

Changes in the Effect of Heat on Mortality in the Last 20 Years in Nine European Cities. Results from the PHASE Project

Francesca K de' Donato et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

The European project PHASE aims to evaluate patterns of change in the temperature-mortality relationship and in the number of deaths attributable to heat in nine European cities in two periods, before and after summer 2003 (1996-2002 and 2004-2010). We performed age-specific Poisson regression models separately in the two periods, controlling for seasonality, air pollution and time trends. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the Relative Risks of daily mortality for increases in mean temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile of the summer distribution for each city. In the recent period, a reduction in the mortality risk associated to heat was observed only in Athens, Rome and Paris, especially among the elderly. Furthermore, in terms of heat-attributable mortality, 985, 787 and 623 fewer deaths were estimated, respectively, in the three cities. In Helsinki and Stockholm, there is a suggestion of increased heat effect. Noteworthy is that an effect of heat was still present in the recent years in all cities, ranging from +11% to +35%. In Europe, considering the warming observed in recent decades and population ageing, effective intervention measures should be promoted across countries, especially targeting vulnerable subgroups of the population with lower adaptive resources.

Keywords: adaptation; attributable deaths; climate change; heat; heat prevention plans; mortality.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Boxplots of mean temperature (°C) distributions by month in the warm season, in the periods before (Period 1) and after 2003 (Period 2) in nine European cities 1996–2010.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Mean temperature–mortality relationship (with 95% confidence intervals) in the years before 2003 (Period 1) (red line) and after 2003 (Period 2) (blue line) in Nine European cities. The x-axes show mean temperature (°C) (city-specific lag).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Estimated RRs (95% CI) for high temperatures and all cause daily mortality by age groups between the 75th and 99th percentile of mean temperature in the periods before 2003 (Period 1) (red line) and after 2003 (Period 2) (blue line). Nine European cities, 1996–2010. * orange boxes: significant REM index P1 and P2 effect estimate; Athens analyses by age group P1 = 1999–2002.
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