Prognosis of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: a new stratification of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage C: results from a French multicenter study

Abstract

Background: Advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) includes a wide spectrum of tumors and patients' prognosis after treatment is highly variable. Moreover, therapeutic options based on the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system algorithm are restricted to one systemic therapy.

Aim of the study: To refine the stratification among BCLC C HCC patients by establishing a new simple prognostic score.

Patients and methods: A regression model based on a BCLC stage C population and validated with an external cohort of BCLC C HCC patients defined the score. It was therefore validated among three external cohorts of BCLC C HCC patients treated with sorafenib.

Results: Five variables had independent prognostic values: the number of nodules, the infiltrating nature of the HCC, α-fetoprotein serum level, Child-Pugh score, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status grade. They were integrated into a new score named NIACE ranging from 0 to 7, well correlated with survival. With the use of one threshold value, this score enables defining of two populations with different survivals among BCLC C patients and specifically among those treated with sorafenib.

Conclusion: The NIACE score defines different prognostic subgroups after palliative treatment of HCC. It could be an additional tool for BCLC C HCC before inclusion in clinical trials or for the management of patients. These results must be validated in a prospective study.