Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2016 May;10(3):170-5.
doi: 10.1111/irv.12371. Epub 2016 Feb 8.

Timing of influenza epidemics and vaccines in the American tropics, 2002-2008, 2011-2014

Lizette Olga Durand  1 , Po-Yung Cheng  1 , Rakhee Palekar  2 , Wilfrido Clara  1 , Jorge Jara  3 , Mauricio Cerpa  2 , Nathalie El Omeiri  2 , Alba Maria Ropero-Alvarez  2 , Juliana Barbosa Ramirez  4 , Jenny Lara Araya  5 , Belsy Acosta  6 , Alfredo Bruno  7 , Celina Calderon de Lozano  8 , Leticia Del Carmen Castillo Signor  9 , Maria Luisa Matute  10 , Sandra Jackson-Betty  11 , Kam Suan Mung  12 , José Alberto Díaz-Quiñonez  13 , Irma López-Martinez  13 , Angel Balmaseda  14 , Brechla Morneo Arévalo  15 , Cynthia Vazquez  16 , Victoria Gutierrez  17 , Rebecca Garten  1 , Marc-Alain Widdowson  1 , Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner  1
Affiliations

Timing of influenza epidemics and vaccines in the American tropics, 2002-2008, 2011-2014

Lizette Olga Durand et al. Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2016 May.

Abstract

Background: Influenza-associated illness results in increased morbidity and mortality in the Americas. These effects can be mitigated with an appropriately chosen and timed influenza vaccination campaign. To provide guidance in choosing the most suitable vaccine formulation and timing of administration, it is necessary to understand the timing of influenza seasonal epidemics.

Objectives: Our main objective was to determine whether influenza occurs in seasonal patterns in the American tropics and when these patterns occurred.

Methods: Publicly available, monthly seasonal influenza data from the Pan American Health Organization and WHO, from countries in the American tropics, were obtained during 2002-2008 and 2011-2014 (excluding unseasonal pandemic activity during 2009-2010). For each country, we calculated the monthly proportion of samples that tested positive for influenza. We applied the monthly proportion data to a logistic regression model for each country.

Results: We analyzed 2002-2008 and 2011-2014 influenza surveillance data from the American tropics and identified 13 (81%) of 16 countries with influenza epidemics that, on average, started during May and lasted 4 months.

Conclusions: The majority of countries in the American tropics have seasonal epidemics that start in May. Officials in these countries should consider the impact of vaccinating persons during April with the Southern Hemisphere formulation.

Keywords: Influenza; surveillence; vaccine.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Modeled binominal yearly predicted influenza activity in the American tropics*†‡. *Y‐axis indicates predicted proportion of respiratory samples that tested positive for influenza. †Red portion of date line indicates the epidemic period. Light red line is the median. ‡Study‐years for each country are as follows: Bolivia, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, and Jamaica 2011–2014; Mexico (tropic region) 2011–2014; Brazil and Costa Rica 2003–2008 and 2011–2014; Colombia 2002–2007 and 2011–2014; Guatemala 2002, 2006–2008, and 2011–2014; El Salvador 2005–2008 and 2011–2014; Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama 2008 and 2011–2014; Paraguay 2003–2005 and 2011–2014; and Peru 2004–2008 and 2011–2014.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Current and proposed influenza vaccine formulation type for the American tropics.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Cheng PY, Palekar R, Azziz‐Baumgartner E et al Burden of influenza‐associated deaths in the Americas, 2002–2008. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2015; 9(Suppl 1):13–21. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Kostova D, Reed C, Finelli L et al Influenza illness and hospitalizations averted by influenza vaccination in the United States, 2005–2011. PLoS ONE 2013; 8:e66312. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Ropero‐Alvarez AM, Kurtis HJ, Danovaro‐Holliday MC, Ruiz‐Matus C, Andrus JK. Expansion of seasonal influenza vaccination in the Americas. BMC Public Health 2009; 9:361. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Azziz Baumgartner E, Dao CN, Nasreen S et al Seasonality, timing, and climate drivers of influenza activity worldwide. J Infect Dis 2012; 206:838–846. - PubMed
    1. Tamerius J, Nelson M, Zhou S, Viboud C, Miller M, Alonso WJ. Global influenza seasonality: reconciling patterns across temperate and tropical. Environ Health Perspect 2011; 119:439–445. - PMC - PubMed

Publication types

Substances

LinkOut - more resources