Risk of Recurrence or Contralateral Breast Cancer More than 5 Years After Diagnosis of Hormone Receptor-Positive Early-Stage Breast Cancer

Abstract

Background: Three large studies have shown a survival benefit from 10 years of adjuvant hormone therapy (AHT). We evaluated the risk of an event 5 years after the initial breast cancer (BC) diagnosis and identified the prognostic factors to assist clinicians considering extended AHT.

Patients and methods: Patients newly referred to the BC Cancer Agency with stage I to III estrogen receptor-positive BC diagnosed from 1989 to 2004 who had undergone AHT were identified by the BC Cancer Agency's Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit. Cases with recurrence, death, or contralateral BC occurring within the first 5 years were excluded. The 10-year event-free survival (EFS) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. This provided estimates of recurrence risk after the fifth year following the diagnosis. The histopathologic and age variables were examined for prognostic value by univariate analysis.

Results: Within our cohort, 6615 women were postmenopausal and 1886 were premenopausal at the BC diagnosis. The median follow-up period was 11 years. The 10-year EFS for women aged < 50 years with stage I, II, and III disease was 94.8% (95% CI, 92.8%-96.3%), 88.3% (95% CI, 86.0%-90.2%), and 80.4% (95% CI, 73.6%-85.6%), respectively. Among women aged ≥ 50 years, the corresponding EFS rates were 94.8% (95% CI, 93.8%-95.6%), 86.3% (95% CI, 85.0%-87.5%), and 73.8% (95% CI, 69.1%-77.8%). EFS varied significantly by grade. The 10-year recurrence risk was < 10% with stage I cancer (any grade) and for stage II (node-negative and node-positive), grade I cancer.

Conclusion: Our data have identified BCs associated with a very low recurrence risk 5 to 10 years after diagnosis, providing women with such cancers confidence about a decision to discontinue AHT after 5 years.

Keywords: Adjuvant hormone therapy; Five versus 10 years of therapy; Good prognosis groups; Hormone receptor-positive breast cancer; Late recurrence risk.