Using Species Distribution Models to Predict Potential Landscape Restoration Effects on Puma Conservation

Abstract

A mosaic of intact native and human-modified vegetation use can provide important habitat for top predators such as the puma (Puma concolor), avoiding negative effects on other species and ecological processes due to cascade trophic interactions. This study investigates the effects of restoration scenarios on the puma's habitat suitability in the most developed Brazilian region (São Paulo State). Species Distribution Models incorporating restoration scenarios were developed using the species' occurrence information to (1) map habitat suitability of pumas in São Paulo State, Southeast, Brazil; (2) test the relative contribution of environmental variables ecologically relevant to the species habitat suitability and (3) project the predicted habitat suitability to future native vegetation restoration scenarios. The Maximum Entropy algorithm was used (Test AUC of 0.84 ± 0.0228) based on seven environmental non-correlated variables and non-autocorrelated presence-only records (n = 342). The percentage of native vegetation (positive influence), elevation (positive influence) and density of roads (negative influence) were considered the most important environmental variables to the model. Model projections to restoration scenarios reflected the high positive relationship between pumas and native vegetation. These projections identified new high suitability areas for pumas (probability of presence >0.5) in highly deforested regions. High suitability areas were increased from 5.3% to 8.5% of the total State extension when the landscapes were restored for ≥ the minimum native vegetation cover rule (20%) established by the Brazilian Forest Code in private lands. This study highlights the importance of a landscape planning approach to improve the conservation outlook for pumas and other species, including not only the establishment and management of protected areas, but also the habitat restoration on private lands. Importantly, the results may inform environmental policies and land use planning in São Paulo State, Brazil.

Fig 1. Study area map.

Land use and pumas’ occurrence records (2001–2012) in São Paulo State, Southeast, Brazil. This figure was elaborated by the first author using software ArcGIS 10.1 and IrfanView 4.37.

Fig 2. The puma habitat suitability in São Paulo State, Brazil and its projection in three restoration scenarios: (a) original Maxent distribution model average, (b) ≥10% percentage of native vegetation restoration scenario, (c) ≥20% percentage of native vegetation restoration scenario, and ≥30% percentage of native vegetation restoration scenario (d).

This figure was elaborated by the first author using softwares ArcGIS 10.1 and IrfanView 4.37.

Fig 3. Marginal response curves showing how the logistic prediction changed as each of the three environmental variables that contributed the most to the models were varied: native vegetation (a), elevation (b) and density of roads (c).

Fig 4. High probability of puma presence (original) in São Paulo State, Brazil and high probability of puma presence projected in three restoration scenarios (≥10% percentage of native vegetation, ≥20% percentage of native vegetation, and ≥30% percentage of native vegetation) zoomed in for a close-up of three different landscape regions: (a) Northwestern region, (b) Central region and (c) Southeastern region.

This figure was elaborated by the first author using softwares ArcGIS 10.1 and IrfanView 4.37.