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. 2015 Nov;44(11):1526-34.

Predicting the Incidence of Smear Positive Tuberculosis Cases in Iran Using Time Series Analysis

Mahmood Moosazadeh  1 , Narges Khanjani  2 , Mahshid Nasehi  3 , Abbas Bahrampour  1
Affiliations

Predicting the Incidence of Smear Positive Tuberculosis Cases in Iran Using Time Series Analysis

Mahmood Moosazadeh et al. Iran J Public Health. 2015 Nov.

Abstract

Background: Determining the temporal variation and forecasting the incidence of smear positive tuberculosis (TB) can play an important role in promoting the TB control program. Its results may be used as a decision-supportive tool for planning and allocating resources. The present study forecasts the incidence of smear positive TB in Iran.

Methods: This a longitudinal study using monthly tuberculosis incidence data recorded in the Iranian National Tuberculosis Control Program. The sum of registered cases in each month created 84 time points. Time series methods were used for analysis. Based on the residual chart of ACF, PACF, Ljung-Box tests and the lowest levels of AIC and BIC, the most suitable model was selected.

Results: From April 2005 until March 2012, 34012 smear positive TB cases were recorded. The mean of TB monthly incidence was 404.9 (SD=54.7). The highest number of cases was registered in May and the difference in monthly incidence of smear positive TB was significant (P<0.001). SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 was selected as the most adequate model for prediction. It was predicted that the incidence of smear positive TB for 2015 will be about 9.8 per 100,000 people.

Conclusion: Based on the seasonal pattern of smear positive TB recorded cases, seasonal ARIMA model was suitable for predicting its incidence. Meanwhile, prediction results show an increasing trend of smear positive TB cases in Iran.

Keywords: Box-Jenkins; Forecasting; Iran; SARIMA; Tuberculosis.

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Figures

Fig. 1:
Fig. 1:. Monthly average incidence of smear positive TB and its grading in Iran from April 2005 until March 2012
Fig. 2:
Fig. 2:. Time Series Plot of (actual data) smear positive TB incident cases per month from April 2005 until March 2012
Fig. 3:
Fig. 3:. The time series after transforms using one stage difference
Fig. 4:
Fig. 4:. Autocorrelation plot after one stage difference
Fig. 5:
Fig. 5:. Partial autocorrelation plot after one stage difference
Fig. 6:
Fig. 6:. Observed and predicted monthly cases of smear positive TB in Iran from April 2005 until March 2015
Fig. 7:
Fig. 7:. The incidence of smear positive TB in Iran, based on real data and predictions
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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