Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2016 Jan;64(1):81-8.
doi: 10.1111/jgs.13838.

Survival Prognosis in Very Old Adults

Mikael Thinggaard  1   2 , Matt McGue  2   3 , Bernard Jeune  1   2 , Merete Osler  1   4 , James W Vaupel  1   2   5   6 , Kaare Christensen  1   2   5   7   8
Affiliations

Survival Prognosis in Very Old Adults

Mikael Thinggaard et al. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2016 Jan.

Abstract

Objectives: To determine whether simple functional indicators are predictors of survival prognosis in very old adults.

Design: In-person survey conducted over a 3-month period in 1998; assessment of survival over a 15-year follow-up period.

Setting: Denmark.

Participants: All 3,600 Danes born in 1905 and living in Denmark in 1998, were invited to participate regardless of residence and health; 2,262 (63%) participated in the survey: 1,814 (80.2%) in person and 448 (19.8%) through a proxy.

Measurements: Socioeconomic factors, medications and diseases, activities of daily living, physical performance, cognition, depression symptomatology, self-rated health, and all-cause mortality, evaluated as average remaining lifespan and chance of surviving to 100 years.

Results: Men aged 92 to 93 had an overall 6.0% chance of surviving to 100 years, whereas the chance for women was 11.4%. Being able to rise without use of hands increased the chance for men to 11.2% (95% confidence interval (CI)=7.7-14.7) and for women to 22.0% (95% CI=18.9-25.1). When combining this with a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores from 28 to 30, the chances were 21.7% (95% CI=11.5-31.9) for men and 34.2% (95% CI=24.8-43.5) for women.

Conclusion: Chair stand score combined with MMSE score is a quick and easy way to estimate overall chance of survival in very old adults, which is particularly relevant when treatment with potential side effects for nonacute diseases is considered.

Keywords: Mini-Mental State Examination; chair stand; clinical decision; mortality; nonagenarians.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Average remaining lifespan estimated using multiple imputation. The categories are the same for all measures for both sexes except for grip strength, as indicated in the figure. Bars indicate 95% confidence intervals.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Chance of surviving to 100 estimated using multiple imputation. The categories are the same for all measures for both sexes except for grip strength, as indicated in the figure. Bars indicate 95% confidence intervals.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Christensen K, Doblhammer G, Rau R, et al. Ageing populations: The challenges ahead. Lancet. 2009;374:1196–1208. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Christensen K, Thinggaard M, Oksuzyan A, et al. Physical and cognitive functioning of people older than 90 years: A comparison of two Danish cohorts born 10 years apart. Lancet. 2013;382:1507–1513. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Boon NA. New deal for old hearts. BMJ. 1991;303:70. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Alfonso DT, Howell RD, Strauss EJ, et al. Total hip and knee arthroplasty in nonagenarians. J Arthroplasty. 2007;22:807–811. - PubMed
    1. George I, Yerebakan H, Kalesan B, et al. Age alone should not preclude surgery: Contemporary outcomes after aortic valve replacement in nonagenarians. J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg. 2014;148:1360–1369.e1. - PubMed

Publication types

LinkOut - more resources