Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.087

. 2016 Apr 1:548-549:82-90.

doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.087. Epub 2016 Jan 19.

Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases

Affiliations

¹ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, 261 Glenbrook Road, Storrs, CT 06269-3037, USA. Electronic address: mellor@engineer.uconn.edu.
² Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
³ Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering & Applied Science, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
⁴ Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, The College of Engineering, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, USA.
⁵ Water Institute, Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
⁶ Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado at Denver, Aurora, CO, USA.
⁷ The Center for Global Health, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
⁸ School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
⁹ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, MA, USA.
¹⁰ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The College of Engineering, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA.
¹¹ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.

PMID: 26799810
PMCID: PMC4818006
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.087

Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases

Jonathan E Mellor et al. Sci Total Environ. 2016.

. 2016 Apr 1:548-549:82-90.

doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.087. Epub 2016 Jan 19.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, 261 Glenbrook Road, Storrs, CT 06269-3037, USA. Electronic address: mellor@engineer.uconn.edu.
² Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
³ Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering & Applied Science, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
⁴ Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, The College of Engineering, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, USA.
⁵ Water Institute, Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
⁶ Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado at Denver, Aurora, CO, USA.
⁷ The Center for Global Health, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
⁸ School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
⁹ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, MA, USA.
¹⁰ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The College of Engineering, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA.
¹¹ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.

PMID: 26799810
PMCID: PMC4818006
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.087

Abstract

Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies.

Keywords: Climate change; Complex systems; Coupled systems; Diarrhea; Health; Water.

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References

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[1] Ahmed SM, Lopman BA, Levy K. A systematic review and meta-analysis of the global seasonality of norovirus. PloS one. 2013;8:e75922. - PMC - PubMed

[2] Ahmed SM, Lopman BA, Levy K. A systematic review and meta-analysis of the global seasonality of norovirus. PloS one. 2013;8:e75922. - PMC - PubMed

[3] Albert MJ, Faruque A, Faruque S, Sack R, Mahalanabis D. Case-control study of enteropathogens associated with childhood diarrhea in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Journal of Clinical Microbiology. 1999;37:3458–3464. - PMC - PubMed

[4] Albert MJ, Faruque A, Faruque S, Sack R, Mahalanabis D. Case-control study of enteropathogens associated with childhood diarrhea in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Journal of Clinical Microbiology. 1999;37:3458–3464. - PMC - PubMed

[5] Alexander KA, Carzolio M, Goodin D, Vance E. Climate change is likely to worsen the public health threat of diarrheal disease in Botswana. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2013;10:1202–1230. - PMC - PubMed

[6] Alexander KA, Carzolio M, Goodin D, Vance E. Climate change is likely to worsen the public health threat of diarrheal disease in Botswana. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2013;10:1202–1230. - PMC - PubMed

[7] Altizer S, Ostfeld RS, Johnson PT, Kutz S, Harvell CD. Climate change and infectious diseases: from evidence to a predictive framework. science. 2013;341:514–519. - PubMed

[8] Altizer S, Ostfeld RS, Johnson PT, Kutz S, Harvell CD. Climate change and infectious diseases: from evidence to a predictive framework. science. 2013;341:514–519. - PubMed

[9] An G. Systems Biology. Springer; 2009. Dynamic knowledge representation using agent-based modeling: ontology instantiation and verification of conceptual models; pp. 445–468. - PubMed

[10] An G. Systems Biology. Springer; 2009. Dynamic knowledge representation using agent-based modeling: ontology instantiation and verification of conceptual models; pp. 445–468. - PubMed

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Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases

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Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases

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